Analyzing the Heterogeneity in Public Transit Demand: Impact of Spatial and Temporal Attributes

Abstract

The usage of personal vehicles is causing several issues like traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and massive energy consumption. These issues can be alleviated by implementing a public bus transport system. But the irregular frequency of buses and longer waiting times are diminishing the attractiveness of public bus transportation in India. To implement an affordable and efficient public transport system, it is necessary to understand the heterogeneity of public transit demand under different conditions. Limited scholarly exploration on the impact of spatial and temporal characteristics on the heterogeneity of public transit demand under Indian conditions. This paper aims to measure public transit demand heterogeneity using the coefficient of variation of transit demand, which is defined as a ratio of standard deviation to mean. Spatial, temporal, and weather characteristics are considered to analyze their influence on the heterogeneity of public transit demand. The statistical variability analysis is performed using Electronic Ticketing Machine (ETM) data, weather data, and bus network data. The results indicate that the combined impact of weather conditions and the built environment has a stronger influence on the variability in Public Transit Demand (PTD) than each factor individually. Based on the analyses, it is recommended to change the service type to improve the transport system's efficiency. This study suggests the importance of incorporating spatial, temporal, and weather characteristics. This study can help stakeholders to optimize public transport networks and schedule service frequency. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2025.