Conference Papers
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Item Electronic ticket machine data analytics for public bus transport planning(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018) Cyril, A.; George, V.; Mulangi, R.H.This paper investigates various aspects related to demand modeling and line-planning for bus transport systems based on data elicited from Electronic Ticket Machine (ETM). The ETM data has not been explored thoroughly for transportation planning although it is nowadays collected and compiled by public transport undertakings on a regular basis. The data used in the study is part of transactions on ticket sales by Kerala State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC) maintained at 6 bus depots in Trivandrum city for the period between 2010 and 2013. The data collected through ETM is immensely huge with average monthly passenger transactions of approximately one million. The database can be audited and compiled to determine the passenger demand, operator's performance, and effectiveness of the service provided. It is possible to determine the origin-destination (OD) matrix of the bus commuters by querying the ETM database using a specially developed program in MATLAB®. The OD data will assist in travel demand modelling, decision-making, and formulation of strategies for future preplanning of the transit system. The work presented in this paper provides details on the block-diagram developed for the formulation of the programme, and a demonstration of its capabilities. In a similar manner, it is also possible to determine the link-volume in terms of passenger flow on the transit network using a specially developed program. Additionally, it is also possible to elicit details on the load-rate with information on boarding and alighting of passengers at bus stops in addition to performance-related statistical details can be elicited from the ETM database. It is proposed to develop MATLAB® based programs for the same. The work described herein also includes description on the use of the time-series approach in short-term demand forecasting. The present work proposes a number of analytical methods that can be employed to derive information from ETM data for travel demand modeling, and strategic and operational planning of public transport. © 2017 IEEE.Item Modelling and Forecasting Bus Passenger Demand using Time Series Method(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018) Cyril, A.; Mulangi, R.H.; George, V.Public bus transport demand modelling and forecasting is important for decision-making, transport policy formulation, urban public transport planning and allocation of buses into the network. It is the key to the solutions for major transportation problems. In this paper, a univariate time series ARIMA model is used to forecast the inter-district public transport travel demand from Trivandrum to five other districts of Kerala. The data used in the study is a part of the transaction on ticket sales by Kerala State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC) maintained at the Trivandrum central depot for the period between 2010 and 2013. ARIMA model is developed to predict the travel demand between the five district pairs and the demand is forecasted for future. The accuracy of the developed ARIMA model is demonstrated in the study by comparing the forecasted values with the actual demand observed in 2013. The results show that time series ARIMA model, which uses only historical data of passenger demand is accurate for zones which are dependent on each other and for short-term demand forecasting. © 2018 IEEE.Item Demand-Based Model for Line Planning in Public Transport(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cyril, A.; Mulangi, R.H.; George, V.A public transport network serves the society effectively if it evolves in time according to the changes in the population. Urban transportation problems of Thiruvananthapuram, a typical Indian city, is mainly due to the lack of evolution of the planned network adhering to the rapid urbanization and motorization. These issues are managed by constructing more infrastructure, which act as the catalyst to major urban problems, rather than addressing the cause. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the public transport operational characteristics of a typical Indian City (Thiruvananthapuram) emphasizing on link load on the selected route. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for line planning problem which includes optimization of public transport lines using operator costs, user costs and crowding on the bus. It also includes the determination of peak and off-peak frequencies of the existing network lines considering the critical demand. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.