DENEKE, FISEHA BEFIKADUShetty, AmbaFufa, Ing. Fekadu2026-02-032024https://idr.nitk.ac.in/handle/123456789/18873The management of surface water resources is hampered in many river basins by a lack of data. The problem is for several of Ethiopia’s river basins increasing the productivity of surface irrigation and scientifically understanding the factors that led to integrated surface water modeling, particularly in Ethiopia's lower Baro is useful. The objectives of this study were (i) to review the land cover (LC) change implications to hydrological variables soil erodibility and yield reduction (ii) to explore statistical and trend analysis of hydrometeorological data, (iii) to quantify the surface water potential and irrigation water demand, and (iv) to investigate the satellite-ET based irrigation performance using Water Productivity Open-access Portal database and to come up with a strategy for quantifying the spatial and temporal increase water use efficiency (WUE) and system water use efficiency (sWUE) in the rainfed and irrigated area of lower Baro watershed. GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation used with the interaction of 8 factoring parameters, to see the low level of irrigation development. In the eight sub-classes, a total of 20, 325 km2 of appropriate pastoral land has been transformed into rainfed rice, sugarcane, maize, and vegetable land. This study used GIS, RS, Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), Cropwat8.0, and EasyFit software. The soil moisture rainfall-runoff method was computed using the WEAP hydrological model for the surface water demand and potential simultaneously from 2000-2014 and 2020-2030. This work used systematic reviews and a meta-analysis technique to examine the LC change and its effects on hydrological variables, soil erodibility, and yield reduction. Record identified through Scopus Searching, Web of Science Searches, and Google Scholar. Fully articles were assessed for eligibility and excluded for reasons. In the data search, 85 articles with investigations published between 2007 to 2022 were examined. Then, for surface water potential and irrigation productivity, only 2% of the abstracts that were eventually evaluated for assessment were selected. Four crops were selected to grow in these identified irrigable areas, and their gross irrigation demand was calculated using Cropwat8.0. In addition to annual streamflow variability, using graph pad prism 9.4 the monthly streamflow variability was determined. With the help of the WEAP system's parameter estimation tool weekly, average streamflow calibration was performed. II As a result, of the review, in the lower Baro, built-up/ settlement, agricultural land, water body, bare/ outcrop, and commercial farm rose roughly +195, +48, +35, +35, and +1%, respectively. On the other hand, shrubland, rangeland, forest land, and wetland decreased by 1, 0.5, 5, and 10%, respectively. But the revised universal soil loss equation looks to be a good alternative and soil water conservation measures are crucial for minimizing soil erodibility in lower Baro. As a result, of the water balance obtained the maximum estimated monthly hydropower potential, irrigation water demand, livestock water demand, and surface water potential were 60.3 Mm3 and the corresponding outflow value was 52.4 Mm3. The total estimated mean annual surface runoff leaving each station of the watershed was 462.06 Mm3. The coefficient of determination (R2) result was 0.88 and the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) was 0.91 highest at the Baro Gambella station. The anticipated irrigation requirement for the selected crop's driest five months of May, February, March, January, and April was 1, 0.9, 0.78, 0.78, and 0.34 l/s/h. The Baro Gambella sub-catchment had maximum critical values test results of σ = 12.6, μ =11.9, and γ = 0, while the Sor Metu showed the smallest value of 0.80, 1.75, and -0.03. Across the watershed, the sWUE varies with runoff, with a coefficient of variation of 71%. As a result, the overall accuracy of the LC change was 81%, the Landsat 8 images of the soiladjusted vegetation index showed a maximum value of 0.87 and a minimum of -1.5. The normalized vegetation index of 0.58 maximum and -1 minimum was observed. By 2050, the sWUE will be 10% lower temporally, but its spatial variability will be 25% higher. From 2017-2023 an increase in trees (dense forest), scrub/shrub land, flooded vegetation, and bare ground, while there had been a decline in water bodies and crops during the same period. When yield gaps are increased by a factor of 1/3, 2/3, and 3/4, the Baro Gambella sub-catchment has the biggest yield gaps 443.52, 887.04, and 1008.106 kg respectively, while the Gumero Gore sub-catchment experiences the smallest yield gaps 0.01, 0.02, and 0.03 kg respectively. As a result, the crop water productivity, ET, crop index, and temporal fluctuation of the yield gap were investigated. Also, the available dry river flow does not meet the available potential irrigable land. Moreover, to increase the irrigation crop water productivity by 2050 in the lower Baro watershed. Therefore, improve soil infiltration and water storage, which decreases runoff and the water lost by ET and raises sWUE.enSurface water potentialsoil moistureirrigation water productivityyield gapThesis