Leveraging explainable AI framework for predictive modeling of products of microwave pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass using machine learning

Abstract

The accurate prediction of biochar, bio-oil, and biogas yields in biomass pyrolysis is critical for optimizing process efficiency and sustainable biofuel production. In this study, machine learning (ML) models were developed using literature-derived data on biomass composition and pyrolysis conditions to predict product yields. A comparative analysis of multiple ML algorithms revealed that Decision Tree and Extra Trees exhibited the highest predictive accuracy, followed by Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Trees, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. LightGBM, Gaussian Process Regression, and CatBoost provided moderate performance, while AdaBoost demonstrated the lowest accuracy. To enhance interpretability, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, specifically SHAP analysis, were employed to identify key factors influencing pyrolysis yields. Temperature, ash content, fixed carbon, and moisture content were the dominant parameters governing biochar yield, whereas heating rate, reaction time, and feedstock properties such as carbon and volatile matter content significantly influenced bio-oil production. The gas yield was primarily driven by temperature, with secondary cracking mechanisms enhancing non-condensable gas formation. These insights provide a data-driven foundation for optimizing biomass pyrolysis processes, enabling targeted valorization strategies for lignocellulosic feedstocks. The integration of ML and XAI in this study establishes a transparent and interpretable modeling framework, facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable biofuel production. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.