Ground motion duration predictive models applicable for the Himalayan region

Abstract

Several empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration were developed across the world, but no model has been generated for the Himalayan region in the past. In this study, an attempt is made to study the duration models developed for different regions and compare them with a reference model developed for the Himalayan region for a wide range of magnitudes. The comparison is performed using the log-likelihood method and aims to identify the best duration prediction models based on the developed by Bajaj and Anbazhagan (2019) for the study region. The data support index values along with the weights of the corresponding models across the different distances and magnitude ranges have also been estimated. The study found that the predictive duration relation given by Lee and Green (2014) for Western North America is suitable for M ≤ 5, while the model developed by Ghanat (2011) is suitable for M > 5 for the Himalayan region. The model developed by Afshari and Stewart (2016) is also very close to the reference model. It is always preferable to have a single duration predictive model for a wide range of magnitude and distance range; hence, there is a need to develop a region-specific duration predictive model for the Himalayan region. © 2023, Indian Academy of Sciences.