High-Spatial-Resolution Estimation of XCO2 Using a Stacked Ensemble Model

Abstract

Highlights: What are the main findings? The study develops a customized stacked ensemble model that generalizes (Formula presented.) predictions across multiple country, such as Germany, France, and Japan. It produces gap-filled high-resolution monthly, seasonal, and yearly maps, highlighting vegetation dynamics and seasonal cycles. What is the implication of the main finding? The customized stacked ensemble model provides reliable cross-country (Formula presented.) predictions at 1 (Formula presented.) resolution, validated against TCCON and CAMS, supporting large-scale environmental monitoring. Seasonal and yearly analyses show vegetation dynamics and photosynthetic activity significantly influence (Formula presented.), enhancing the model’s adaptability for agriculture, different climate assessments, and future global mapping. One of the leading causes of climate change and global warming is the rise in carbon dioxide ((Formula presented.)) levels. For a precise assessment of (Formula presented.) ’s impact on the climate and the creation of successful mitigation methods, it is essential to comprehend its distribution by analyzing (Formula presented.) sources and sinks, which is a challenging task using sparsely available ground monitoring stations and airborne platforms. Therefore, the data retrieved by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite can be useful due to its extensive spatial and temporal coverage. Sparse and missed retrievals in the satellite make it challenging to perform a thorough analysis. This work trains machine learning models using the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) (Formula presented.) retrievals and auxiliary features to obtain a monthly, high-spatial-resolution, gap-filled (Formula presented.) concentration distribution. It uses a multi-source aggregated (MSD) dataset and the generalized stacked ensemble model to predict country-level high-resolution (1 (Formula presented.)) (Formula presented.). When evaluated with TCCON, this country-level model can achieve an RMSE of 1.42 ppm, a MAE of 0.84 ppm, and (Formula presented.) of 0.90. © 2025 by the authors.