Forecasting Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model

Abstract

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) information helps analyze future trends and is essential for environmental management and sustainable planning. Time-series satellite images are employed in this study to forecast changes in LULC. Deep-learning (DL) frameworks have been widely used for modeling dynamic LULC changes at the regional level. However, improving the accuracy of the existing prediction models is necessary. This letter proposes an integrated convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM) known as a hybrid CNN-LSTM model to address the fine-scale LULC prediction requirement. The efficiency of the proposed approach was examined using LULC data for the Dakshina Kannada District of Karnataka State, India. The proposed model achieved an overall accuracy of 95.11% and a kappa coefficient of 0.92, based on the ground-truth data for 2014. The model's predictions for 2035, based on data from 2005 to 2014, revealed the following trends: Urbanization exhibited a pattern of rapid expansion and increased growth. The integrated CNN-LSTM model extracted spatial and temporal features for effectively predicting LULC changes. Infrastructure development, population density, and enhanced economic activities were the major driving factors of changes in LULC for the study region. Robust LULC change forecasting will strengthen LULC evaluations, aid in understanding complex land-use systems, and empower decision-makers to formulate effective land management strategies in the coming years. © 2004-2012 IEEE.