Recent Changes in Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Bilate River Basin of Rift Valley, Ethiopia

Abstract

The hydroclimatic extremes such as floods and droughts have been causing damage and losses with rising frequency than ever before. The human-induced and internal climate variability create extreme events and local hydrometeorological changes influencing climate-sensitive sectors. This research is aimed at analyzing the recent changes in the hydrometeorological extremes using indices over the Bilate basin in Ethiopia. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine changes in hydrometeorological extreme indices. The rainy days' rate of change falls between þ10.64 mm in the downstream to −10.67 mm in the upstream north. The wet day rainfall and heavy rainfall day indices were stronger in the basin's southwest, implying more likely flood events. The consecutive dry days show a rising tendency with more variability, while the consecutive wet days show no trend with less variability. The change point analysis revealed inconsistencies for the majority of the extreme indices. The stations' average warmest nights and days significantly increased at a rate of 0.0358°C and 0.0320°C per annum, respectively. The coldest nights in most of the stations show a significant and negligible rise in the basin while on the coldest days more than half of the stations declining. The peak flow in the annual and seasonal time series shows a rising trend and a dominant rise in most low flow indices, which possibly flashes downstream flooding. The global and local climate anomalies revealed a weak correlation, but with overlap of wet and drought years. Basin water resource plans may benefit from identified overlap cross of threshold years for improved flood control and drought monitoring. © 2018 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved.