Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Kumaradhara Basin, Western Ghats, India

Abstract

Land use land cover (LULC) is considered as the most significant and obvious indicator of changes in ecosystems. An understanding of current and potential future development opportunities is provided through analysis on the spatiotemporal shifting patterns of LULC and simulation of future scenarios. Kumaradhara river flows in the Western Ghats in southern peninsular, India. It is the major tributary of the Netravathi river, and the catchment has numerous perennial streams and is dominated by dense evergreen forests with high conservation value. In the present study, an integrated approach of remote sensing and geospatial techniques is used to assess LULC changes for the period of 2010–2020, and prediction of future LULC change was carried out by ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS for the year 2025. The results have shown that the build-up land has increased considerably, and forest has decreased which is evident from the increase in cultivated land. The predicted LULC showed an increase in built-up land and a significant transformation of barren land. The results of this study indicate significant changes in the LULC pattern. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2024.