Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the New Indian Parliament Building Site in Delhi

Abstract

Earthquakes are a significant geological hazard that causes destruction to life and property. A timely and thorough seismic hazard assessment of regions of national importance is necessary to ensure public safety. Delhi, the national capital of India, is classified as Zone IV in seismic zoning. A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was conducted to determine the seismic hazard at the site of the newly constructed Parliament building in New Delhi, focusing on seismically active faults in the area. The building was designed to withstand heavy earthquake loads, but the data used for its construction was based on older analytics. This study bridges that gap by using recent earthquake data. A catalogue completeness analysis was performed on homogenised and declustered earthquake data, and the area was divided into six subzones to calculate seismicity parameters for each source. Region-specific ground motion was evaluated using an attenuation relationship developed for North Indian states. The ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) specific to the region was integrated into the model to determine probabilistic seismic susceptibility. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the bedrock level was calculated for 2 and 10% probability of exceedance over a fifty-year period, and uniform hazard response spectra were determined for the site. The results show bedrock PGA values of 0.31 g and 0.14 g at 2% and at 10% exceedance probability over 50-years. These values are slightly higher than those found in previous studies of the region, indicating an increased seismic susceptibility. This study concludes that the region is susceptible to seismic activity, with an increase in bedrock PGA potentially leading to higher surface-level PGA. Further studies and geotechnical investigations are recommended to fully assess surface-level hazards. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2025.