AN Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of Wildfires in the Nallamala Hills, India

Abstract

Wildfires threaten ecosystems, human lives, and infrastructure, necessitating effective detection and prediction methods. In this study, an in-depth analysis of wildfire detection and forecasting is carried out over the Nallamala hills, which stretch across the states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Our approach comprises three significant steps: Active fire analysis, pre-fire analysis, and post-fire analysis. Pre-fire maps were created using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during the pre-fire analysis, which involved time series analysis of significant components. For active fire analysis, the first dataset is created by using satellite imagery and its derived products. A dataset is used to train the five different machine-learning models for prediction. Among these models, the Random Forest classifier outperformed the remaining four models (Support vector Classifier, Gradient Boosting Classifier, Logistic Regression, and K-means algorithms) in accurately detecting and predicting active fires. This step enabled real-Time monitoring and prioritisation of firefighting efforts. The burnt area calculation uses the Normalised Burn Ratio (NBR) in the post-fire analysis. The analysis implemented post-fire rehabilitation and restoration efforts, giving essential information on the scope and severity of fire damage. The comprehensive study of all wildfires will provide a detailed picture of what occurred in the past (Timeseries), present (Prediction models), and future (Pre-fire maps), allowing people and government agencies to take precautions against future wildfires. © 2023 IEEE.