Machine Learning based COVID-19 Mortality Prediction using Common Patient Data

Abstract

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in 2020, and it caused havoc worldwide. The fact that it is unpredictable adds to its lethality. The world has already seen various COVID-19 infection waves, subsequent waves being even more deadly. Many patients are asymptomatic initially but suddenly develop breathing problems. More than four million people have died due to COVID-19. It is necessary to forecast a patient's likelihood of dying so that appropriate precautions can be implemented. In this study, a COVID-19 mortality prediction model which uses machine learning is proposed. Most of the current research work requires several patient features and lab test results to predict mortality. However, we suggest a simpler and more efficient technique that relies solely on X-rays and basic patient information such as age and gender. Several ensemble-based models were evaluated and compared using a variety of metrics, and the best method was able to achieve a classification accuracy of 92.6% and AUPRC of 0.95. © 2022 IEEE.