Ensemble Learning Approach for Short-term Energy Consumption Prediction

Abstract

Predicting electricity consumption accurately is crucial for garnering insights and potential trends into energy consumption for effective resource management. Due to the linearity/non-linearity in usage patterns, electricity consumption prediction is challenging and cannot be adequately solved by using a single model. In this paper, we propose ensemble learning based approaches for short-term electricity consumption on an open dataset. The ensemble model is built on the combined predictions of supervised machine learning and deep learning base models. Experimental validation showed that the proposed ensemble model is more accurate and decreases the training time of the second layer of the ensemble by a factor close to ten, compared to the state-of-the-art. We observed a reduction of approximately 34% in the Root mean squared error for the same size of historical window. © 2022 Owner/Author.