Evaluating uncertainty of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model in the upper cauvery basin, Karnataka, India

Abstract

Quantification of uncertainties associated with hydrological models are essential for accurate assessment of water balance components and optimal planning and management of water and land resources at basin-scale. The present study was taken up to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using for two different techniques: i) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) and ii) Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) techniques. The study was carried out in the Upper Cauvery River basin (36,682 km2) located in the humid to sub-humid region of Karnataka State, India. The calibration of the model was carried out using the Nash – Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient as the objective function for both GLUE and SUFI-2 techniques. The P-factor was 67% and 71% of observed streamflow data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU) for GLUE and SUFI-2 respectively during calibration period and corresponding values of 54% and 61% during validation period. Overall results indicate the applicability of SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertainty in large basins located in the humid tropics. The calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessment of water balance components and land use management scenarios in the Upper Cauvery Basin. © 2015 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved.