A modified point estimate-based probabilistic load flow approach for improving tail accuracy in wind-integrated power systems

Abstract

Modern power systems confront risks, including demand variations and forced outages of traditional generators. Moreover, the extensive grid integration of new energy generation has exacerbated the uncertainty because of its intermittent nature. The Hong's three-point estimation method (3PEM) for performing probabilistic load flow (PLF) is commonly used to cope with power system uncertainties; however, it has poor tail accuracy. To overcome this issue, the basic 3PEM is modified by adding a new pair of tail points. This modified 3PEM (MH3PEM) is equivalent to 5PEM but utilize reduced order moments. Also, a hybrid Hong-Harr PEM approach is proposed to efficiently deal with a mixture of independent and correlated input variables. The input variables’ correlation is modeled using the Nataf transformation. The proposed approaches are tested on wind farm-integrated 24-bus and 72-bus equivalent systems, and their findings are compared with the fundamental PEM schemes. Utilizing the Monte-Carlo simulation as a reference, the MH3PEM provides the most accurate results with a low computational burden. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.