Faculty Publications

Permanent URI for this communityhttps://idr.nitk.ac.in/handle/123456789/18736

Publications by NITK Faculty

Browse

Subject: search.filters.subject.earthquake prediction

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Mangalore and Its Adjoining Regions, A Part of Indian Peninsular: An Intraplate Region
    (Birkhauser Verlag AG, 2019) Shreyasvi, C.; Venkataramana, K.; Chopra, S.; Rout, M.M.
    The Southwestern part of India investigated in the present study mainly comprises of states such as Goa, north Kerala and a major portion of Karnataka. A comprehensive regional seismic catalog has been compiled spanning over 190 years apart from a few prehistoric events from the early 16th century. The classical Cornel–McGuire approach has been incorporated in the estimation of seismic hazard. The seismic sources are modeled as area sources and the entire study region is divided into four seismogenic source zones. The uncertainties involved in the formulation of the seismic source model and ground motion prediction model has been discussed in detail. Further, the procedure for selecting appropriate GMPEs involves the evaluation of multidimensional (M, R, T) ground motion trends and performance against observed macroseismic data. The epistemic uncertainty in the estimation of seismicity parameters and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) has been addressed using logic tree computation. The results of the hazard analysis demonstrate that the existing seismic code underestimates the seismic potential of seismic zone II (BIS 1893) areas. The de-aggregation of the predicted seismic hazard revealed earthquakes of magnitude range (Mw) 4–6 occurring within a distance of 35kms to be most influential for any given site of interest. Sensitivity analysis has been performed for crucial input parameters in the formulation of seismic source and ground motion models. Site amplification study has been carried out using topographic slope as a proxy to shear velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). A maximum of 60% to 80% amplification has been observed in the study area. The seismic hazard maps in terms of PGA have been plotted for the seismic hazard estimated at the bedrock level as well as the surface level for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The hazard estimation specifically for the southern part of the west coast is the first of its kind. The investigation suspects mining-induced seismicity in Bellary and Raichur districts though there is no mention of this in the prior literature. © 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of North and Central Himalayas using regional ground motion prediction equations
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021) Ramkrishnan, R.; Kolathayar, S.; Sitharam, T.G.
    Recently developed region-specific GMPEs are used for a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis (SHA) of the North and Central Himalayas (NCH) using a probabilistic approach considering two source models. Vulnerable seismic sources in the areas are identified based on the Seismotectonic Atlas (Dasgupta et al. 2000), published by the Geological Survey of India. An up to date, homogenized and declustered earthquake catalogue is compiled from various sources, with earthquake data since 250 BC, to create a new digitized seismotectonic representation of the region. Regional seismic zones having similar seismicity are recognized based on the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters and the region is delineated into 5 seismic zones. The study area is divided into grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° and the hazard in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at the centre of each grid point is estimated and presented as hazard maps for individual seismic sources, maximum of all sources, and average of both sources. From the current study, it could be concluded that the PGA estimated in the regions is comparatively higher than what is reported in the codal provisions for seismic zonation and estimation of design horizontal acceleration for the region. © 2021, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of north and central Himalayas using region-specific ground motion prediction equations
    (Springer, 2021) Ramkrishnan, R.; Kolathayar, S.; Sitharam, T.G.
    Abstract: A comprehensive deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA) of the north and central Himalayas (NCH) is attempted in the current study using recently developed strong-motion data-based region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Two source models, linear and point sources are used for hazard assessment. An updated seismotectonic map of the NCH is developed by identifying and merging the seismic sources from the Seismotectonic Atlas (SEISAT 2000) developed by the Geological Survey of India and recent literature, and a homogenized, declustered up-to-date earthquake catalogue with events since 250 BC. The NCH is divided into grids of size approximately 5 km × 5 km, and the bedrock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the center of each grid point is estimated using a region-specific GMPE considering both source models. The PGA values estimated at these points are exported to a GIS platform to develop a seismic hazard map of the region, separately for different sources, average and maximum of both the sources. It is observed from the current study that the PGA estimated is apparently greater than what is recommended in the codal provisions for seismic zonation and estimation of design horizontal acceleration for the NCH. Research highlights: SHA based on the state of the art DSHA technique has been carried out using various source models and recently developed region-specific GMPEs with an updated homogenized and declustered catalogue.Deterministic Seismic Hazard contour maps have been developed representing the bedrock level horizontal acceleration developed using linear and point sources.The newly developed hazard maps for the North and Central Himalayas shows higher PGA in the range of 0.4g to 0.7g towards the plate boundary region and a decreasing trend towards the peninsular shield region and the southern alluvial plains, except at the National Capital Region.The PGA estimated are comparatively higher than the design horizontal acceleration prescribed for these regions in BIS 1893. © 2021, Indian Academy of Sciences.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Sree Padmanabhaswamy Temple, Kerala State
    (Springer, 2025) Padmanabhan, M.P.H.; Siddhardha, R.; Kolathayar, S.; Hegde, R.; Beekanahalli Mokshanatha, B.M.
    Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) is a technique employed to estimate potential hazards and ground shaking resulting from specific earthquake scenarios at a given location. In the present study, DSHA is conducted for the Sree Padmanabhaswamy Temple, situated in the southernmost district of Kerala, India. This seismic hazard study is crucial due to the temple’s proximity to seismic events such as the 1900 AD Coimbatore earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 Mw and the 2000 Pala earthquake with a magnitude of 4.7 Mw. This study examines earthquake data within a 500 km radius surrounding the Sree Padmanabhaswamy Temple in Thiruvananthapuram District, Kerala, from 1819 to 2022 AD. The seismic zone of the temple site is III according to the Indian zonation map (IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016), relying on past earthquakes recorded throughout India. The collected earthquake data underwent a homogenization process to determine the moment magnitude (Mw), distinguishing foreshocks and aftershocks from the main shocks. A seismotectonic map was developed comprising of geological discontinuities and 316 earthquakes events with moment magnitudes between 3.0 and 6.3 Mw. The software tools employed for this work include MATLAB, QGIS and ZMAP. The Log-likelihood technique (LLH) was used to choose the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the location. The GMPEs were then given weights based on the computed values of the data support index (DSI). The study region was partitioned into a grid size of 0.05° × 0.05° (5 km × 5 km). Using MATLAB code, the peak ground acceleration (PGA) was estimated for the site and PGA was found in the center of each grid cell, taking into account all seismic sources within a 500 km radius. In addition, site-specific deterministic spectrum was also developed. The findings show that Sree Padmanabhaswamy Temple has low seismicity, which is defined by weak to moderate earthquakes that have sources close to the temple. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Indian Geotechnical Society 2024.