Faculty Publications
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Item Tropical, Seasonal River Basin Development: Hydrogeological Analysis(2011) Shetkar, R.V.; Mahesha, A.This study presents a hydrogeological analysis of a humid tropical, seasonal river in the context of climate change, increasing demand for water, and uneven distribution of rainfall. We investigate the Netravathi basin, a tropical river basin of south India. The climate change effect on the basin was evident in terms of increasing trend in temperature by about 0.7°C/100 years and decreasing trend in the river flow during the monsoon by about 0.8% of average annual flow per year using the Mann-Kendall trend test. Even though rainfall was found to be decreasing, no significant trend could be established. From the trend analysis of the river flow, it was found that there is an overall declining trend with longer scarcity periods. In addition, the trends of magnitude and frequency of high flows are declining. Even though the region receives an average annual rainfall of about 3,930 mm, it has nonuniform distribution with most of the rainfall confining to a few months of a year. In view of this, the region suffers from a prolonged dry period during February to May. The projected domestic water demand of the region for the next 25 years is estimated to be increasing from the present 0.09 mm3 to 0.25 mm3 per day because of rapid urbanization and industrialization. The purpose of this investigation is to highlight the effects of climate change and uneven distribution of rainfall in the river basin. This may assist in proper planning of the basin through strategies such as river water harvesting, which is investigated in the companion paper. Because the Netravathi River is a seasonal and tidal river, and saltwater intrusion along the river during the summer months is affecting the development of the basin. It was found that the river water is affected up to distance of about 22,000 m from the Arabian sea and the wells on the banks of the river are found to be highly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion during the summer period (March to May). © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item El nino effect(CAFET INNOVA Technical Society cafetinnova@gmail.com 1-2-18/103, Mohini Mansion, Gagan Mahal Road, Domalguda, Hyderabad 500029, 2014) Reddy, P.R.; Venkat Reddy, D.V.[No abstract available]Item Impacts of climate change on varied River-Flow regimes of southern india(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) onlinejls@asce.org, 2017) Mudbhatkal, A.; Raikar, R.V.; Venkatesh, B.; Mahesha, A.This paper assesses the possible impact of climate change on the hydrology of the subhumid and perhumid river regimes originating from the western mountain range (Western Ghats) of India. The modified Mann-Kendall test evaluates the trend of observed data (1975-2004) and RCP 4.5 data (2006-2070) of climatic variables. The results indicate a decreasing trend for annual rainfall over the Malaprabha River catchment (26 mm per year at the 5% significance level), whereas no trend is observed over the Netravathi River catchment at the 10% level. Indian southwestern monsoon rainfall shows a decreasing trend from 84 to 80% of total rainfall in the Malaprabha River catchment and from 80 to 77% in the Netravathi River catchment. Summer rains are found to be increasing in the Malaprabha River catchment (3-4.5% of total rainfall), whereas there is no significant trend for the Netravathi River catchment. Furthermore, the postmonsoon rainfall also shows a significant increase in the Malaprabha catchment (40 mm per decade at the 5% significance level) and the Netravathi catchment (30 mm per decade at the 10% significance level). The Netravathi River shows a decreasing trend for annual flow (0.22 Mm3 per year at the 10% significance level). However, for both catchments the temperature is found to be increasing by 0.2-0.8°C per decade. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the river catchments and exhibits a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.831 and 0.857 for the Malaprabha and Netravathi River catchments, respectively. In addition, a decreasing trend in the high flow is estimated for Netravathi, whereas the trend is increasing for Malaprabha. Thus the impacts of climate change over the Western Ghats are very evident, but the flow of each river responds differently. © 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item Analysis of climate trend and effect of land use land cover change on Harangi streamflow, South India: a case study(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2017) Anil, A.P.; Ramesh, H.Land use land cover (LULC) and climate change are considered to be driving factors contributing to the alteration of the hydrological regime. Therefore, an attempt has been made to study climate trend and the effect of LULC on streamflow in a basin covered predominantly by forest. The Harangi river basin is one of such basins located in the western ghats of South India. The LULC trend was carried out by considering temporal multispectral data for the years 1990, 2002 and 2008 obtained from Landsat-5TM and IRS 1C (Indian Remote Sensing Satellites). Climate parameters such as rainfall and temperatures were considered for the trend analysis in this study. The rainfall trend was studied using Man-Kendall and Sen’s slope method to understand the spatio-temporal variability. Rainfall shows the decrease trend at Suntikoppa rain gauge station in January and June months. Harangi and Madapura rain gauge stations also show a decrease of rainfall trend for only January month. Temperature trend show increase in maximum temperature for the month of April, May and November whereas increase in minimum temperature was observed in the month of November and December. Spatial extent of LULC found that 52.4% (220.014 km2) of the study area was covered with forest in 1990 which has considerably decreased to 43.9% (184.53 km2) in 2008. There was a rise in total area of plantation crops from 106.27 km2 (25.32%) to 138.20 km2 (32.9%) during this period. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study the effect of LULC on streamflow. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed daily streamflow data. The coefficient of correlation (r2) was found to be 0.87 and 0.86 for calibration and validation, respectively. The results found the annual streamflow to increase by 0.77% from 1990 to 2008 whereas the mean monthly streamflow has increased by 9.46% during this period. This was mainly due to the reduction in forest area observed in LULC maps. © 2017, Springer International Publishing Switzerland.Item Bias correction methods for hydrologic impact studies over India's Western Ghat basins(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) onlinejls@asce.org, 2018) Mudbhatkal, A.; Mahesha, M.The regional climate models (RCMs) used in the analysis of the impact of climate variables on the hydrology of river basins needs appropriate preprocessing (bias correction) to represent and reproduce future climate with a fair degree of accuracy. The performance of bias corrections methods was assessed in this investigation on the basis of their ability to minimize error on climate variables and streamflow. This work compares the performance of five bias correction methods applied for precipitation and four methods for temperature in modeling the hydrology of the river catchments of theWestern Ghats of India. TheWestern Ghats are a mountainous forest range along the entire west coast of India that plays a major role in the distribution of Indian monsoon rains. Simulations were used to evaluate the performance of the bias correction methods. Using raw RCM, bias corrected precipitation and temperature time series, streamflows were estimated by the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The results indicated that the raw RCM-simulated precipitation was biased by 42% and the temperature was biased by 12% across the catchments investigated. Subsequently, a bias of 65% was found in the streamflow. The performance of the delta change correction method was consistently better for precipitation (with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE > 0.75 for 5 catchments) and temperature (NSE = 1) compared with other methods. Good performance was observed between the observed and bias corrected streamflow (daily time scale) for the catchments Purna (NSE = 0.97), Ulhas (NSE = 0.64), Aghanashini (NSE = 0.82), Netravathi (NSE = 0.89), and Chaliyar (NSE = 0.90); low performance with an NSE of 0.3 was observed for the catchments Kajvi and Vamanapuram. The methods failed for Malaprabha and Tunga catchments. The results indicate that the delta change correction method performed best in analyzing the hydrological impact of climate variables on the windward side of Western Ghats of India. © 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item Hydro-meteorological impact assessment of climate change on Tikur Wuha watershed in Ethiopia(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021) Ketema, A.; Dwarakish, G.S.This study focused on examining the potential effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological variables at the Tikur Wuha watershed (TWW). The weighted average of the validated Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) data of the five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model in TWW. The result revealed that the Bega, Kiremt, and annual rainfall increased in both mid and end century for all scenarios. In contrast, the Belg rainfall decreased for all cases except for RCP8.5 at the end century. The rainfall increased more in the end century than mid-century. The increase in rainfall is higher in the Bega compared to Belg and Kiremt season. No significant change in variability of precipitation is observed in the study area. Both the average minimum and maximum temperature increased for all scenarios and time horizons. The annual average streamflow in TWW increased in all cases except a slight reduction in the RCP4.5 scenario in mid-century. Climate change affects the streamflow in the study watershed by increasing the wet season flow and reducing the dry season flow. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.Item Time series forecasting of temperature and turbidity due to global warming in river Ganga at and around Varanasi, India(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022) Das, N.; Sagar, A.; Bhattacharjee, R.; Agnihotri, A.K.; Ohri, A.; Gaur, S.The fluctuation in the river ecosystem network due to climate change-induced global warming affects aquatic organisms, water quality, and other ecological processes. Assessment of climate change-induced global warming impacts on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resource management and planning. The global warming effect on river water quality has been analyzed in this work. The river Ganga stretch near the Varanasi region has been chosen as the study area for this analysis. The air temperature has been predicted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the Prophet model. The Prophet model has shown better accuracy with a root mean square percent error (RMSPE) value of 3.2% compared to the SARIMA model, which has an RMPSE value of 7.54%. The river temperature, turbidity, and nighttime radiance values have been predicted for the years 2022 and 2025 using the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The anthropogenic effect on the river has been evaluated by using the nighttime radiance imageries. The predicted average river temperature shows an increment of 0.58 °C and 0.63 °C for the city and non-city river stretches, respectively, in 2025 compared to 2022. Similarly, the river turbidity shows an increment of 1.21 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) and 1.17 NTU for the city and non-city stretch, respectively, in 2025 compared to 2022. For future predicted years, the nighttime radiance values for the region situated near the city river stretch show a significant rise compared to the region that lies nearby the non-city river stretch. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.Item Quantification of change in land cover and rainfall variability impact on flood hydrology using a hydrological model in the Ethiopian river basin(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Tola, S.Y.; Shetty, A.Changes in land cover and climate are the dominant factors that significantly impact the hydrological process. However, the impact on flood response behaviour varies spatiotemporally. This study quantitatively assessed the effects of individual and coupled changes in land cover and climate on peak and high flows in the upstream and downstream parts of the Upper Awash River basin. Two time periods were chosen for comparison: baseline (1988–2001) and evaluation (2002–2015). The Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the impact of these changes. The model satisfactorily simulated daily and extreme flows. The evaluation of annual maximal discharge variability between 1985 and 2015 at upstream and downstream stations showed significant positive and insignificant negative trends, respectively. However, the sub-basin’s annual wet day rainfall (PRCPTOT) showed a downward trend. The annual maximal discharge–PRCPTOT relationship was significant during the baseline but later had no significance. The SWAT model showed that the main factor that affected the changes in upstream flow was the land cover change, increasing peak and high flow by 38.69% and 11.95%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. However, combined changes resulted in downstream peak and high flow reductions of 19.55% and 50.33%, respectively. As a result, changes in flood characteristics are strong functions of land cover, especially in the upstream sub-basin and land cover and climate in the downstream sub-basin. Overall, the impact of changes in the cropland-dominated basin was noticeably different. The study assists water resource managers in understanding the causes of hydrological dynamics and developing mitigation strategies. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.Item Investigation of performance and technical assessments of hybrid source electric vehicles under different locations and driving conditions(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2024) Sidharthan P, V.; Kashyap, Y.Sustainable transportation is a significant concept followed by nations implementing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that reduce emissions and adapt to climate change impacts. Electric vehicle (EV) adoption has accelerated; however, a trade-off exists between EV adoption and EV batteries-Battery charging from the grid (conventional energy sources) and e-wastes from retired batteries deposited in landfills. Thus, EVs associated with renewable energy sources (RES) are an alternate solution. This paper proposes a hybrid source electric vehicle (HSEV) with a high energy-dense supercapacitor (SC) as the primary source and PV energy as the secondary source. An energy management algorithm (EMA) with a modified controller is implemented in a Matlab/Simulink environment. Analysis of HSEV under varying locations (Australia, India, and Scotland), driving profiles (WLTP class-1, IDC, and ECE), and driving times (daytime, nighttime) highlights the importance of the proposed EMA. Grid charging instants are reduced to 3 times per month in Australia under WLTP class-1 cycle employing PV energy. Moreover, SC degradation is least compared to the lithium-ion battery in a BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle), hence avoiding the chances of maintenance and replacements. The proposed HSEV exhibits improved performance compared to BEVs of a similar type under different locations, driving, and environmental conditions. © 2023 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.Item Climate anomalies and stock market dynamics: Evidence from empirical analysis(Academic Press, 2025) Akshaya, A.; Gopalakrishna, B.V.The longstanding variation in average climate parameters, typically occurring over decades or longer, is known as climate change. The authors examine the impact of climate change anomalies, specifically the changes in temperature and precipitation, on the equity market. This empirical approach utilized monthly long-term time-series data from 1996 to 2024, comprising 348 observations. To test the empirical association between the variables, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models. The findings of this analysis reveal a significant short-run symmetric effect of temperature changes on market volatility (? = 0.0004, p = 0.010). Increasing temperatures intensify market instability, suggesting that short-term climatic shocks amplify investor uncertainty and risk perception, and heighten market momentum. In contrast, increasing precipitation exhibits a long-term stabilizing effect (? = ?8.91e-06, p = 0.032), indicating that higher rainfall helps mitigate market instability over time. The alternative explanatory data from the World Bank and the GARCH model results are robust to the primary outcome. The study's outcomes provide valuable insights for regulatory bodies' climate disclosure policies and highlight the importance of proactive hazard management, particularly for investors in emerging markets and vulnerable sectors that are more susceptible to climate-driven volatility. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd