Faculty Publications

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Spatio-temporal precipitation variability over Western Ghats and Coastal region of Karnataka, envisaged using high resolution observed gridded data
(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2017) Doranalu Chandrashekar, V.; Shetty, A.; Singh, B.B.; Sharma, S.
Climatic changes in the recent decades have led to large variations in precipitation over the different geographical regions of the globe. Changes in precipitation pattern over the space and time can severely affect the country like India, which has a large spatio-temporal variability in the precipitation. Any shift in the mean precipitation pattern pose a challenge to economy, agricultural farming and the ecosystem of these regions. In the present study, we analyze the seasonal spatio-temporal variation in trends of long term (1901–2013) observed high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data of the Indian Meteorological Department over Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka, vulnerable to the risks of climate change. Our analysis shows increasing trend in seasonal ratio of precipitation over the Southern coastal plains and the adjacent Western Ghats region during pre-monsoon (MAM) while the southern coastal plains show decreasing trend in monsoon period (JJAS). Daily intensity index of precipitation during monsoon shows increasing trend in northern plains with decreasing trend in the medium precipitation events. Our study finds that different topographic regions of Karnataka have different responses in the trends of precipitation, particularly the response of plains is quite different to that of the higher elevated Ghat region. © 2017, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature.
Trends in extreme rainfall over ecologically sensitive Western Ghats and coastal regions of Karnataka: an observational assessment
(Springer Verlag service@springer.de, 2018) Chandrashekar, V.D.; Shetty, A.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ? 2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (? 2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (? 100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (? 65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (? 2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (? 40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (? 20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall. © 2018, Saudi Society for Geosciences.
Multiscenario Analysis of Hydrological Responses to Climate Change over River Basins of the Western Ghats of India
(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2024) Shetty, S.; Umesh, P.; Shetty, A.
In the face of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, our study investigates the intricate regional dynamics of hydrological responses across three vital river basins of the Western Ghats of India. Employing advanced eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) ensemble models based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data, the article explores the anticipated changes in the climate variables under two future scenarios. The findings reveal a compelling narrative of temperature fluctuations, with increased warming in future decades from November to June ushering in warmer winters and extended summer seasons. These climatic shifts carry profound implications for rainfall patterns, potentially disrupting rainfall during the pivotal months of June and July up to the decade 2030s, with a more pronounced increase in the Purna River Basin (PRB) after the decade 2050s. The projected future climate scenarios indicate that the Vamanapuram River Basin (VRB) and PRB will experience contrasting patterns of dry and wet events, with the VRB facing severe to extreme dry and the PRB witnessing increased moderate to extreme wet events under high-emission scenarios. Additionally, the PRB may experience the paradox of increasing wetness and aridity. These insights provide crucial guidance for policy formulation and adaptation measures to safeguard agriculture and other vital sectors in the face of evolving climate conditions. © 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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