Faculty Publications
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Item Flood susceptibility modeling based on morphometric parameters in Upper Awash River basin, Ethiopia using geospatial techniques(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022) Tola, S.Y.; Shetty, A.The hydrological response, such as direct surface runoff, is linked to the characteristics of the watershed. Evaluation and knowledge of geomorphometric parameters in relation to floods and the identification of specific flood-prone sites in the basin are critical for mitigation measures. Despite advancements in geospatial tools, the utilization of geospatial data in many river basins prone to flooding and erosion is minimal. Morphometric aspects: linear, areal, and relief analysis of the Upper Awash River basin were performed in four subbasins to better understand the hydrological signatures behaviour. The topographic wetness index (TWI) and topographic position index (TPI) were also used to determine the extent of inundation. The aggregated parameters revealed that SB-1 is highly susceptible to flooding, SB-3 and SB-4 are moderately susceptible, and SB-2 is low. However, based on the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph, SB-2 and SB-4 demonstrated rapid response and a high flood generating potential. The degree of susceptibility was determined by incorporating the TWI and TPI through overlay analysis. Overall, the Upper Awash River basin accounts for 23%, 42%, and 36% of the total bay has been classified as high, medium, and low flood-prone, respectively. According to the study, topographic indices (TWI and TPI) are critical attributes that show specific flood potential areas and inundation extents in addition to morphometric parameter-based flood susceptibility analysis. The analysis provided input for holistic water and soil erosion management by providing the hydrological behaviour of the stream, geomorphological characteristics, basin responsiveness, and stream power to flood potential and denudation characteristics in the subbasins. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.Item Land cover change and its implications to hydrological variables and soil erodibility in Lower Baro watershed, Ethiopia: a systematic review(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Deneke, F.; Shetty, A.; Fufa, F.Water-induced soil erodibility is the most severe kind of land degradation, with substantial environmental and social consequences. Few studies have been conducted on land cover change and soil erodibility in Ethiopia. During the data search, 83 articles were looked at, with studies published from 2007 to 2022. Only 2% of the abstracts that were considered for assessment were eventually accepted. The review was conducted using the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and a meta-analysis approach. According to this study, when compared to the values predicted in the river basin’s master plan, Baro Akobo’s estimated surface water potential has been reduced by about 3.6 Bm3. As a result, changes in land cover affected a variety of fundamental processes in watersheds, at several spatial and temporal scales. As a result, of the reviewed, in lower Baro, built-up/settlement, agricultural land, water body, bare/outcrop, and commercial farm all rose by roughly + 195, + 48, + 35, + 35, and + 1%, respectively. Shrubland, rangeland, forest land, and wetland, on the other hand, all decreased by − 1, − 0.5, − 5, and − 10%, respectively. The K-factors are 0.31, 0.23, 0.14, and 0.07 for chromatic vertisols, humic cambisols, eutric cambisols, and eutric nitosols, respectively. From the results of the review studies, the RUSLE looks to be a good alternative for assessing soil erodibility in lower Baro, and soil water conservation measures are crucial for minimizing soil erodibility. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.Item Quantification of change in land cover and rainfall variability impact on flood hydrology using a hydrological model in the Ethiopian river basin(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Tola, S.Y.; Shetty, A.Changes in land cover and climate are the dominant factors that significantly impact the hydrological process. However, the impact on flood response behaviour varies spatiotemporally. This study quantitatively assessed the effects of individual and coupled changes in land cover and climate on peak and high flows in the upstream and downstream parts of the Upper Awash River basin. Two time periods were chosen for comparison: baseline (1988–2001) and evaluation (2002–2015). The Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the impact of these changes. The model satisfactorily simulated daily and extreme flows. The evaluation of annual maximal discharge variability between 1985 and 2015 at upstream and downstream stations showed significant positive and insignificant negative trends, respectively. However, the sub-basin’s annual wet day rainfall (PRCPTOT) showed a downward trend. The annual maximal discharge–PRCPTOT relationship was significant during the baseline but later had no significance. The SWAT model showed that the main factor that affected the changes in upstream flow was the land cover change, increasing peak and high flow by 38.69% and 11.95%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. However, combined changes resulted in downstream peak and high flow reductions of 19.55% and 50.33%, respectively. As a result, changes in flood characteristics are strong functions of land cover, especially in the upstream sub-basin and land cover and climate in the downstream sub-basin. Overall, the impact of changes in the cropland-dominated basin was noticeably different. The study assists water resource managers in understanding the causes of hydrological dynamics and developing mitigation strategies. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.Item Integrated spatial and temporal variability of the system water use efficiency in a lower Baro River watershed, Ethiopia(IWA Publishing, 2023) Befikadu, F.; Shetty, A.; Fufa, F.The Baro Akobo River is representative of lower Baro watersheds with lost soils. Under eight landscapes, the geospatial and temporal variability of system water use efficiency (sWUE) were examined in a total area of 20,325 km2. This study used GIS, RS, Cropwat8.0, and EasyFit software. The anticipated irrigation requirement for the selected crop’s driest five months of May, February, March, January, and April was 1, 0.9, 0.78, 0.78, and 0.34 l/s/h, respectively. The sub-catchment had maximum critical test values of σ = 12.6, μ = 11.9, and γ = 0, while Sor Metu showed the smallest value of 0.80, 1.75, and 0.03. Across the watershed, the sWUE varies with runoff, with a coefficient of variation of 71%. The overall accuracy of the land cover change was 81%, the Landsat 8 images of the soil-adjusted vegetation index showed a maximum value of 0.87 and a minimum of 1.5. The normalized vegetation index ranged from a maximum of 0.58 to a minimum of 1. By 2050, the sWUE will be 10% lower temporally, but its spatial variability will be 25% higher. Therefore, soil infiltration and water storage improve, which decreases runoff and the water lost by ET and raises sWUE. © 2023 The Authors.Item Flood hazard map of the Becho floodplain, Ethiopia, using nonstationary frequency model(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2024) Tola, S.Y.; Shetty, A.Flood estimates based on stationary flood frequency models are commonly used as inputs to flood hazard mapping. However, changing flood characteristics caused by climate change necessitate more accurate assessments of the probabilities of rare flood events. This study aims to develop a flood hazard map based on the nonstationary flood frequency using a generalized extreme value distribution model for the Becho floodplain in the upper Awash River basin. The distributional location parameter was modeled as a function of rainfall amount of different durations, annual total precipitation from wet days, yearly mean maximum temperature and time as covariates. The one-dimensional Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model with steady flow analysis was used to generate flood hazard map input, depth and velocity, and inundation extent for different return periods. The result indicated that the model as a function of rainfall, such as monthly rainfall (August) and annual wet day precipitation, provided the best fit to the observed hydrological data. Rainfall as a covariate can explain the variation in the peak flood series. The developed hazard map based on depth alone and the combination of depth and velocity thresholds resulted in more than 70% of the floodplain area being classified as a high hazard zone under 2, 25, 50, and 100-years return periods. The current study assists water resource managers in considering changing environmental factors and an alternative flood frequency model for developing flood hazard management and mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2023.Item Multiscenario Analysis of Hydrological Responses to Climate Change over River Basins of the Western Ghats of India(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2024) Shetty, S.; Umesh, P.; Shetty, A.In the face of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, our study investigates the intricate regional dynamics of hydrological responses across three vital river basins of the Western Ghats of India. Employing advanced eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) ensemble models based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data, the article explores the anticipated changes in the climate variables under two future scenarios. The findings reveal a compelling narrative of temperature fluctuations, with increased warming in future decades from November to June ushering in warmer winters and extended summer seasons. These climatic shifts carry profound implications for rainfall patterns, potentially disrupting rainfall during the pivotal months of June and July up to the decade 2030s, with a more pronounced increase in the Purna River Basin (PRB) after the decade 2050s. The projected future climate scenarios indicate that the Vamanapuram River Basin (VRB) and PRB will experience contrasting patterns of dry and wet events, with the VRB facing severe to extreme dry and the PRB witnessing increased moderate to extreme wet events under high-emission scenarios. Additionally, the PRB may experience the paradox of increasing wetness and aridity. These insights provide crucial guidance for policy formulation and adaptation measures to safeguard agriculture and other vital sectors in the face of evolving climate conditions. © 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.