Faculty Publications
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Item Wavelet coupled MARS and M5 Model Tree approaches for groundwater level forecasting(Elsevier B.V., 2017) Rezaie-Balf, M.; Naganna, S.R.; Ghaemi, A.; Deka, P.C.In this study, two different machine learning models, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and M5 Model Trees (MT) have been applied to simulate the groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations of three shallow open wells within diverse unconfined aquifers. The Wavelet coupled MARS and MT hybrid models were developed in an attempt to further increase the GWL forecast accuracy. The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) which is particularly effective in dealing with non-stationary time-series data was employed to decompose the input time series into various sub-series components. Historical data of 10 years (August-1996 to July-2006) comprising monthly groundwater level, rainfall, and temperature were used to calibrate and validate the models. The models were calibrated and tested for one, three and six months ahead forecast horizons. The wavelet coupled MARS and MT models were compared with their simple counterpart using standard statistical performance evaluation measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NNSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The wavelet coupled MARS and MT models developed using multi-scale input data performed better compared to their simple counterpart and the forecast accuracy of W-MARS models were superior to that of W-MT models. Specifically, the DWT offered a better discrimination of non-linear and non-stationary trends that were present at various scales in the time series of the input variables thus crafting the W-MARS models to provide more accurate GWL forecasts. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.Item Estimation of dew point temperature using SVM and ELM for humid and semi-arid regions of India(Taylor and Francis Ltd. michael.wagreich@univie.ac.at, 2018) Deka, P.C.; Patil, A.P.; Yeswanth Kumar, P.; Naganna, S.R.The dew point temperature is the temperature at which the moisture in the air begins to condense into dew or water droplets. The accurate estimation of the dew point temperature is very important as it controls the heat stress on humans, detects fluctuations of evaporation rates, and humidity trends. The dew point temperature is a significant parameter particularly required in various hydrological, climatological and agronomical related researches. This study proposes Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) models for the estimation of daily dew point temperature. The daily measured weather data (Wet bulb temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure and dew point temperature) of humid and semi-arid regions of India were used for model development. The statistical indices, namely Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency were adopted to evaluate the performances of these two models. The merit of the ELM model is evaluated against SVM technique in the estimation of dew point temperature. The proposed ELM models demonstrated much greater capability than the SVM models in the estimation of daily dew point temperature. © 2017 Indian Society for Hydraulics.Item Dew Point temperature estimation: Application of artificial intelligence model integrated with nature-inspired optimization algorithms(MDPI AG indexing@mdpi.com Postfach Basel CH-4005, 2019) Naganna, S.R.; Deka, P.C.; Ghorbani, M.A.; Biazar, S.M.; Al-Ansari, N.; Yaseen, Z.M.Dew point temperature (DPT) is known to fluctuate in space and time regardless of the climatic zone considered. The accurate estimation of the DPT is highly significant for various applications of hydro and agro-climatological researches. The current research investigated the hybridization of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network with nature-inspired optimization algorithms (i.e., gravitational search (GSA) and firefly (FFA)) to model the DPT of two climatically contrasted (humid and semi-arid) regions in India. Daily time scale measured weather information, such as wet bulb temperature (WBT), vapor pressure (VP), relative humidity (RH), and dew point temperature, was used to build the proposed predictive models. The efficiencies of the proposed hybrid MLP networks (MLP-FFA and MLP-GSA) were authenticated against standard MLP tuned by a Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation algorithm, extreme learning machine (ELM), and support vector machine (SVM) models. Statistical evaluation metrics such as Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to validate the model efficiency. The proposed hybrid MLP models exhibited excellent estimation accuracy. The hybridization of MLP with nature-inspired optimization algorithms boosted the estimation accuracy that is clearly owing to the tuning robustness. In general, the applied methodology showed very convincing results for both inspected climate zones. © 2019 by the authors.Item Hybrid wavelet packet machine learning approaches for drought modeling(Springer, 2020) Das, P.; Naganna, S.R.; Deka, P.C.; Pushparaj, J.Among all the natural disasters, drought has the most catastrophic encroachment on the surrounding and environment. Gulbarga, one of the semi-arid districts of Karnataka state, India receives about 700 mm of average annual rainfall and is drought inclined. In this study, the forecasting of drought for the district has been carried out for a lead time of 1 month and 6 months. The multi-temporal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter due to the fact that it is calculated on the basis of one simplest parameter, i.e., rainfall and additionally due to its ease of use. The fine resolution daily gridded precipitation data (0.25º × 0.25º) procured from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) of 21 grid locations within the study area have been used for the analysis. Forecasting of drought plays a significant role in drought preparedness and mitigation plans. With the advent of machine learning (ML) techniques over the past few decades, forecasting of any hydrologic event has become easier and more accurate. However, the use of these techniques for drought forecasting is still obscure. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques have been employed to examine their accuracy in drought forecasting over shorter and longer lead times. Furthermore, two hybrid approaches have been formulated by coupling a data transformation method with each of the aforementioned ML approaches. At the outset, pre-processing of input data (i.e., SPI) has been carried out using Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) and then used as inputs to ANN and SVR models to induce hybrid WP-ANN and WP-SVR models. The performance of the hybrid models has been evaluated based on the statistical indices such as R2 (co-efficient of determination), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and MAE (Mean Absolute Error). The results showed that the hybrid techniques have better forecast performance than the standalone machine learning approaches. Hybrid WP-ANN model performed relatively better than WP-SVR model for most of the grid locations. Also, the forecasting results deteriorated as the lead time increased from 1 to 6 months. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.