Faculty Publications
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Item Effect of climate change on Netravathi riverflow(2010) Shetkar, R.V.; Mahesha, A.The adequacy of freshwater resources for future is difficult to assess due to complex and rapidly changing environmental and social parameters. There is uncertainty with respect to the prediction of climate change and its effect on planning and management of water resources. Higher temperature and reduced precipitation would lead to larger deficiencies in the supply and demand for water. This might cause deterioration in the quality of freshwater adding strain on the already fragile balance between supply and demand. Although the effect of climate change on water resources is uncertain and site specific, the perception is that it will result into increased extreme events and hence increased risk of flooding and droughts. This paper aims at assessing the trends of temperature, precipitation and river flow for the Netravathi river, a tropical river of south India. The river water utilization at present is less than 1% of the average annual flow. The river flow is neither controlled nor altered due to manmade structures hence may be considered as natural flow. From the analysis, it is important to note that the temperature is rising and there is declining trend in precipitation and stream flow during the study period of 30 years (1971 to 2001). Also, the low flow frequency analysis shows an upward trend. Similar analyses carried out for the number of days of flow peaks above a threshold value indicate that the high flow frequency trend is declining and the magnitude of these high flow events is also decreasing. The outcome of the present study indicates a definitive, decreasing trend in the river flow due to climate change and a forecasting mechanism may be essential in the future for the sustainable development of the available water resources. © 2010 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved.Item Tropical, Seasonal River Basin Development: Hydrogeological Analysis(2011) Shetkar, R.V.; Mahesha, A.This study presents a hydrogeological analysis of a humid tropical, seasonal river in the context of climate change, increasing demand for water, and uneven distribution of rainfall. We investigate the Netravathi basin, a tropical river basin of south India. The climate change effect on the basin was evident in terms of increasing trend in temperature by about 0.7°C/100 years and decreasing trend in the river flow during the monsoon by about 0.8% of average annual flow per year using the Mann-Kendall trend test. Even though rainfall was found to be decreasing, no significant trend could be established. From the trend analysis of the river flow, it was found that there is an overall declining trend with longer scarcity periods. In addition, the trends of magnitude and frequency of high flows are declining. Even though the region receives an average annual rainfall of about 3,930 mm, it has nonuniform distribution with most of the rainfall confining to a few months of a year. In view of this, the region suffers from a prolonged dry period during February to May. The projected domestic water demand of the region for the next 25 years is estimated to be increasing from the present 0.09 mm3 to 0.25 mm3 per day because of rapid urbanization and industrialization. The purpose of this investigation is to highlight the effects of climate change and uneven distribution of rainfall in the river basin. This may assist in proper planning of the basin through strategies such as river water harvesting, which is investigated in the companion paper. Because the Netravathi River is a seasonal and tidal river, and saltwater intrusion along the river during the summer months is affecting the development of the basin. It was found that the river water is affected up to distance of about 22,000 m from the Arabian sea and the wells on the banks of the river are found to be highly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion during the summer period (March to May). © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item Parameter estimation and vulnerability assessment of coastal unconfined aquifer to saltwater intrusion(2012) Mahesha, A.; Vyshali; Lathashri, U.A.; Ramesh, H.The focus of the present work is to characterize a tropical, coastal aquifer and to carry out its vulnerability to saltwater intrusion using hydrogeological parameters. The characterization of the aquifer involves pumping tests, vertical electrical sounding, and water quality analysis carried out at 41 monitoring wells. The area under investigation lies between two tropical, seasonal, tidal rivers, i.e., Pavanje and Gurpur rivers, joining the Arabian on the west coast of India. The aquifer is predominantly shallow and unconfined, having moderate to good groundwater potential with transimissivity and specific yield ranging from 49.2 to 461:4 m2/day and 0.00058 to 0.2805, respectively. The electrical resistivity tests indicated that the thickness of the aquifer ranges from 18 to 30 m. The study also investigates the saltwater affected areas in the region the vertical electrical sounding and water quality analysis. The resistivity results revealed several probable isolated saltwater intruded pockets in the region with resistivity less than 70 Om. From the salinity analysis of water, the locations that are affected during February to May (summer) and throughout the year are identified. The wells that are located close to the coast (< 350 m) and at lower elevations (well bottom < +1 m) were found to be saline throughout the year. Also, wells along the banks of the river show considerable salinity (> 200 ppm) during the summer period from tidal inflow along the rivers. The water samples were also analyzed for chloride to bicarbonate ratios during December to May at all the monitoring wells and were found to be exceeding the allowable limit at several locations. The saltwater vulnerability maps are derived for the area by the index-based method using the hydrogeological parameters. The method was found to be effective while compared to the field observations. The results from the analysis indicate that the aquifer is medium to highly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion at majority of the locations. The impact of projected sea level rise by 0.25 and 0.50 m from the climate change is also assessed on the vulnerability of the region to saltwater intrusion. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item Impacts of climate change on varied River-Flow regimes of southern india(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) onlinejls@asce.org, 2017) Mudbhatkal, A.; Raikar, R.V.; Venkatesh, B.; Mahesha, A.This paper assesses the possible impact of climate change on the hydrology of the subhumid and perhumid river regimes originating from the western mountain range (Western Ghats) of India. The modified Mann-Kendall test evaluates the trend of observed data (1975-2004) and RCP 4.5 data (2006-2070) of climatic variables. The results indicate a decreasing trend for annual rainfall over the Malaprabha River catchment (26 mm per year at the 5% significance level), whereas no trend is observed over the Netravathi River catchment at the 10% level. Indian southwestern monsoon rainfall shows a decreasing trend from 84 to 80% of total rainfall in the Malaprabha River catchment and from 80 to 77% in the Netravathi River catchment. Summer rains are found to be increasing in the Malaprabha River catchment (3-4.5% of total rainfall), whereas there is no significant trend for the Netravathi River catchment. Furthermore, the postmonsoon rainfall also shows a significant increase in the Malaprabha catchment (40 mm per decade at the 5% significance level) and the Netravathi catchment (30 mm per decade at the 10% significance level). The Netravathi River shows a decreasing trend for annual flow (0.22 Mm3 per year at the 10% significance level). However, for both catchments the temperature is found to be increasing by 0.2-0.8°C per decade. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the river catchments and exhibits a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.831 and 0.857 for the Malaprabha and Netravathi River catchments, respectively. In addition, a decreasing trend in the high flow is estimated for Netravathi, whereas the trend is increasing for Malaprabha. Thus the impacts of climate change over the Western Ghats are very evident, but the flow of each river responds differently. © 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item Long-Term Climate Variability and Drought Characteristics in Tropical Region of India(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2021) Vijay, A.; Sivan, S.D.; Mudbhatkal, A.; Mahesha, A.This work reports climate change signals and long-Term trend analysis of climate variables, meteorological drought, and extreme climate indexes over the tropical state of Kerala in India. The trend analysis reveals statistically significant decrease of annual and southwest monsoon rainfall (as much as 63 mm and 55 mm per decade, respectively). A decrease in number of annual rainy days (up to 2.8 days/decade) is also reported. Temperature trend analysis indicates an increasing trend with as high as 1.3°C/decade. The spatio-Temporal variation of extreme climate indexes across Kerala shows a decreasing trend of extreme precipitation indexes and an increasing trend of extreme temperature indexes. R95 and R95p decreased in northern and southern Kerala whereas R5 index increased in central and southern regions. Warm days have significantly increased whereas cold days exhibit a decreasing trend across the state. The increase in warmer nights is statistically significant whereas colder nights are decreasing in central and southern regions. Meteorological drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) reveals increasing occurrence of droughts in Kerala with higher frequencies over southern and central Kerala. © 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.Item Effects of land use and climate change on water scarcity in rivers of the Western Ghats of India(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021) Sharannya, T.M.; Venkatesh, K.; Mudbhatkal, A.; Muthuvel, M.; Mahesha, A.This paper assesses the long-term combined effects of land use (LU) and climate change on river hydrology and water scarcity of two rivers of the Western Ghats of India. The historical LU changes were studied for four decades (1988–2016) using the maximum likelihood algorithm and the long-term LU (2016–2075) was estimated using the Dyna-CLUE prediction model. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were utilized to assess the effects of climate change (CC) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for hydrological modeling of the two river catchments. To characterize granular effects of LU and CC on regional hydrology, a scenario approach was adopted and three scenarios depicting near-future (2006–2040), mid-future (2041–2070), and far-future (2071–2100) based on climate were established. The present rate of LU change indicated a reduction in forest cover by 20% and an increase in urbanized areas by 9.5% between 1988 and 2016. It was estimated that forest cover in the catchments may be expected to halve compared to the present-day LU (55% in 2016 to 23% in 2075), along with large-scale conversion to agricultural lands (13.5% in 2016 to 49.5% in 2075). As a result of changes to LU and forecasted climate, it was found that rivers in the Western Ghats of India might face scarcity of fresh water in the next two decades until the year 2040. However, because of large-scale LU conversion toward the year 2050, streamflow in rivers might increase as high as 70.94% at certain times of the year. Although an increase in streamflow is perceived favorable, the streamflow changes during summer and winter may be expected to affect the cropping calendar and crop yield. The changes to streamflow were also linked to a 4.2% increase in ecologically sensitive wetlands of the Aghanashini river catchment. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.Item Future global concurrent droughts and their effects on maize yield(Elsevier B.V., 2023) Muthuvel, D.; Sivakumar, B.; Mahesha, A.Droughts are one of the most devastating natural disasters. Droughts can co-exist in different forms (e.g. meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) as concurrent droughts. Such concurrent droughts can have far reaching implications for crop yield and global food security. The present study aims to assess global concurrent drought traits and their effects on maize yield under climate change. The standardized indices of precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture incorporated as multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) using copula functions are used to quantify the concurrent droughts. The ensemble data of several General Circulation Models (GCMs) considering the high emission scenario of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are utilized. Applying run theory on a time series (1950–2100) of MSDI values, the duration, severity, areal coverage, and average areal intensity of concurrent droughts are computed. The temporal evolution of drought duration and severity are compared among historical (1950–2014), near future (2021–2060), and far future (2061–2100) timeframes. The results indicate that the most vulnerable regions in the late 21st century are Central America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, and the Amazon basin. The indices and spatial extent of the individual droughts are used as predictor variables to predict the country-level crop index of the top seven producers of maize. The historical dynamics between maize yield and different drought forms are projected using XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) algorithms. The future temporal changes in drought-crop yield dynamics are tracked using probabilities of various drought forms under yield-loss conditions. The conditional concurrent drought probabilities are as high as 84 %, 64 %, and 37 % in France, Mexico, and Brazil, revealing that concurrent drought affects the maize yield tremendously in the far future. This approach of applying statistical and soft-computing techniques could aid in drought mitigation under changing climatic conditions. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.Item Large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and spatiotemporal variability of extreme rainfall indices across India(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Vinod, D.; Mahesha, A.Identifying trends in hydrometeorological time series during extreme weather events and their interactions with large-scale atmospheric teleconnections is crucial for climate change research. This study evaluates 14 precipitation-based indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) across seven climatic zones of India using gridded daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for 120 years (1902–2021) utilised. Trend analysis was carried out using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Theil-slope Sen's estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and other statistical tools. Change point detection is established using the Pettitte test and Cumulative Sum algorithm. The relationships between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and ETCCDI indices are also found, and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models are developed between them. The results show significant increasing trends in extreme rainfall indices in India's Ladakh region, located in the arid desert-cold climatic zone. The annual, Southwest Monsoon (SW-Monsoon), Northeast Monsoon (NE-Monsoon), and summer rainfall trends were positive, while winter rainfall had a negative trend across most climatic zones. Significant associations between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), SST of Niño 3.4 region, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and Dipole Mode Index (IOD) and ETCCDI indices were established across multiple climatic zones. Using MLR analysis, this study attempts to establish, for the first time, the relationship between teleconnections and ETCCDI indices across India. Extreme rainfall indices are influenced by climate change during the SW-Monsoon across most of the climatic zones of India. During the previous El Niño event (2014–2016), average annual rainfall decreased by 19.5%, SW-Monsoon rainfall decreased by 25.2%, and NE-Monsoon rainfall decreased by 64.1% in India. The findings may provide valuable insights into mitigation strategies to sustain the adverse effects of extreme weather conditions and enhance climate resilience. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.Item Modeling nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban areas of India under changing climate(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Vinod, D.; Mahesha, A.Enhancing stormwater drainage systems is paramount amid evolving climate dynamics, necessitating robust design and continual upgrades to address changing environmental conditions. The present work constructs the nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for prominent urban areas of India. It develops 2313 nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models in annual and seasonal timeframes by integrating the influence of local and global climate-informed covariates, including time covariates. The work involves analyzing 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 hourly maximum rainfall series with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Among the 16 urban areas examined, there's a significant shift from stationary to nonstationary extreme rainfall intensities, marked by a 38.7% increase in shorter duration series with a 5-year return period in New Delhi and Visakhapatnam. AMO, DMI, GTA, and LTA in New Delhi play significant roles. Similarly, in Visakhapatnam, SST in Niño 3.4 and DMI are significant covariates influencing nonstationarity. Recently, in the 2023 monsoon, the 25-year flood wreaked havoc in New Delhi, Rajkot, Surat, and Visakhapatnam. Generating nonstationary IDF curves for the annual and seasonal timeframes offers a comprehensive approach to stormwater design and infrastructure upgradation and effective adaptation strategies across sixteen Indian cities. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.Item Decadal trends and climatic influences on flash droughts and flash floods in Indian cities(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Archana, T.R.; Vinod, D.; Mahesha, A.Flash droughts/floods are extreme weather phenomena that are expected to become increasingly frequent and severe with the changing climate. Flash droughts result from a rapid decline in soil moisture, while flash floods occur due to a high extreme rainfall intensity over a short duration. This study analyzes the ERA5 reanalysis data (hourly temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation) from 1992 to 2022 to assess flash drought/flood attribute variations across fourteen Indian cities. Flash drought events are identified based on specific conditions using the obtained Soil Moisture Index (SMI) values. At the same time, we propose a novel approach to attribute flash floods by setting thresholds for precipitation and soil moisture. This study examines the frequency and trends of flash drought and flood events across India's various Köppen-Geiger climatic zones from 1992 to 2022. Jaipur and Dehradun show a statistically significant decrease in flash drought events with magnitudes of ?0.0833 events/year and ?0.0769 events/year, respectively. Conversely, Hyderabad exhibits a highly significant increase in flash flood events with a magnitude of 1.1851 events/year. Similarly, Bengaluru, Varanasi, and Vishakhapatnam also show substantial increases in flash flood events. These findings underscore the impact of climate change on flash droughts/floods, highlighting the necessity for sustainable strategies. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.