Faculty Publications

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Impact of climate change on crop yields: Evidence from irrigated and dry land cultivation in semi-arid region of India
(L and H Scientific Publishing, LLC, 2020) Kalli, R.; Jena, P.R.
With population pressure constantly growing in India the crop productivity is struggling hard to catch up. Erratic rainfall and steady rise in temperature create widely uncertain outcomes for the farming communities. Against this backdrop, the present study has used a climate dataset constructed at a finer spatial level from a southern Indian state namely Karnataka to analyze the yield response of rice and maize crops to climate change. Using a time period from 1992 to 2012, a panel dataset has been made at the district level. The fixed effect regression results show that rice and maize productivity has been impacted adversely due to a steady rise in temperature in the state. The extent of damage is found to be 7% to 10%. Further, the study has also probed the role of irrigation as a climate adaptation strategy and has found out that adverse yield impact is reduced in the presence of irrigation. These findings provide some specific directions for policy framing to curb yield damage arising from climate variability. © 2020 L&H Scientific Publishing, LLC.
Combining agriculture, social and climate indicators to classify vulnerable regions in the Indian semi-arid region
(IWA Publishing, 2022) Kalli, R.; Jena, P.R.
Climate change vulnerability is highly counter-productive for agriculture among the arid and semi-arid regions. The study constructs the agriculture vulnerability index for Karnataka, a south Indian state. The state has faced frequent climate-related shocks in the last decade. The district-wise vulnerability index is estimated using longitudinal data considering exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity as sub-indices. The results show that the districts in the north interior region of Karnataka are highly vulnerable to the climate change followed by the districts in the south interior and coastal regions. There is an urgent need to prioritize the most vulnerable districts while formulating the development policies to minimize the risk of climate change on agriculture. Specific technical knowledge and support need to be made available to the farmers for informative climate resilience action. © 2022 The Authors.
How large is the farm income loss due to climate change? Evidence from India
(Emerald Group Holdings Ltd., 2022) Kalli, R.; Jena, P.R.
Purpose: Climate change is the most concerned issue in the global economy; increase in climate variability and uncertain climate events have caused distress in agriculture sector. The study estimates economic effect of climate change on agriculture income for the Indian state of Karnataka. The study reports the difference of result from past studies, where estimates from present study indicate higher negative impact of rise in temperature. Design/methodology/approach: Fixed effect panel regression method was used to examine change in agriculture revenue to climate response. Climate variables were classified based on the crop calendar to capture the damage caused by climate change. The authors use fine scale climate data set constructed at regional context for 20 districts and time period of 21 years (1992–2012). Findings: The result showed that with 1-degree rise in average maximum temperature, the revenue declined by 17–21%. The prediction behavior of the different models was evaluated using out-of-sample forecast approach by training and testing historical data set. Originality/value: The study adopts recent data sets on agriculture and the updated climate variables to estimate the climate change impact on agriculture. The study yields the better results when compared to previous traditional models applied in literature in Indian context. The study further evaluates the prediction behavior and robustness of the estimated models using out-of-sample forecast method. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.
Effect of irrigation on farm efficiency in tribal villages of Eastern India
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Kalli, R.; Jena, P.R.; Timilsina, R.R.; Rahut, D.B.; Sonobe, T.
Irrigation is an important adaptation strategy to cope with climate change which reduces vulnerability to water stress and improves crop productivity to feed millions. There is evidence of crop yield stagnation in many developing countries, and irrigation efficiency is claimed to increase crop productivity. Therefore, this paper uses data envelopment analysis to evaluate the farmer's productivity through technical efficiency (TE), i.e., the relationship between resource inputs and outputs of 513 paddy farmers in Eastern India. The results show that the farms are, on average operating at 14% TE, leaving a considerable scope to improve up to 86% to reach the optimal level. A significant difference is observed between irrigated and rain-fed paddy farmers, such that10% of the irrigated farms achieved efficiency scores over 40% and only 2% of rain-fed farms achieved the same. The tobit and beta fit regression models are estimated to find out the factors that influence the TE. Both surface water and groundwater sources of irrigation are used as predictors, along with other socio-demographic factors. Access to surface water irrigation is identified to be a significant determinant of farm efficiency, however, surface water irrigation, such as canal irrigation, is accessible only to farmers living on plain land. Farmers living on highlands need to explore other sources of irrigation practices, such as drip and sprinkler, that can increase TE and farm productivity. Therefore, this paper calls for government intervention to provide extensive training and facilities for these micro-irrigation practices. © 2023 The Authors

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