Faculty Publications
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Item Solar Irradiation Forecast Enhancement Using Hybrid Architecture(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023) Chiranjeevi, M.; Karlamangal, S.; Moger, T.; Jena, D.Power balancing at the grid is much more involved process due to the fact that solar power generation is primarily weather dependent, as it is relied on solar irradiation, which is very volatile and unpredictable. Accurate solar irradiation forecasting can significantly increase the performance of solar power plants. This research is motivated by the current advancements in deep learning (DL) models and its practical use in the green energy field. The proposed model combines two DL architectures: convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The effectiveness of the same is analysed by comparing with recurrent neural network (RNN) family architectures. The RNN family models are Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Bi-directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Bi-directional GRU (Bi-GRU). The simulations are conducted on a publicly available data set from Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC), Australia. A meteorological station across the Northern Territory (NT Solar resource) collects high resolution solar and climate data from Darwin location, which is used for the experiment. From the results, it is evident that each of the bidirectional model outperform its unidirectional equivalent architectures. However, the hybrid network (CNN-LSTM) outperforms all the individual models as per the error metric analysis. © 2023 IEEE.Item Preprocessing Techniques of Solar Irradiation Data(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023) Chiranjeevi, M.; Karlamangal, S.; Moger, T.; Jena, D.; Agarwal, A.Solar energy being abundant, non-exhaustive, environmentally friendly attracts the people attention towards the alternate renewable energy. High-quality time series data is essential for producing an accurate estimate of solar power generation. In most cases, the plethora of information hidden in time series data cannot be accessed. Common issues with time series include outliers, noise, missing data, and a lack of order in the timestamps itself that impair forecasting accuracy. So, preprocessing of the input data is a mandate in order to achieve a precise and dependable forecast. This study proposes various pre-processing techniques to improve the performance of the forecasting accuracy. The different ways to handle the missing values and outliers detection by sliding window method and box plots are presented in this study. The solar irradiation data collected from solar center Alice Springs, Australia used for validation of the preprocessing results. The efficacy of the proposed method in detecting the missing values and outliers is effective from the obtained results. © 2023 IEEE.Item A spatiotemporal probabilistic model-based temperature-augmented probabilistic load flow considering PV generations(John Wiley and Sons Ltd vgorayska@wiley.com Southern Gate Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, 2019) Prusty, B.R.; Jena, D.The probabilistic steady-state forecasting of a PV-integrated power system requires a suitable forecasting model capable of accurately characterizing the uncertainties and correlations among multivariate inputs. The critical and foremost difficulties in the development of such a model include the accurate representation of the characterizing features such as complex nonstationary pattern, non-Gaussianity, and spatial and temporal correlations. This paper aims at developing an improved high-dimensional multivariate spatiotemporal model through enhanced preprocessing, transformation techniques, principal component analysis, and a suitable time series model that is capable of accurately modeling the trend in the variance of uncertain inputs. The proposed model is applied to the probabilistic load flow carried out on the modified Indian utility 62-bus transmission system using temperature-augmented system model for an operational planning study. A detailed discussion of various results has indicated the effectiveness of the proposed model in capturing the aforesaid characterizing features of uncertain inputs. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Item An improved sliding window prediction-based outlier detection and correction for volatile time-series(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2021) Ranjan, K.G.; Tripathy, D.S.; Prusty, B.R.; Jena, D.Steady-state forecasting is indispensable for power system planning and operation. A forecasting model for inputs considering their historical record is a preliminary step for such type of studies. Since the historical data quality is decisive in edifice an accurate forecasting model, data preprocessing is essential. Primarily, the quality of raw data is affected by the presence of outliers, and preprocessing refers to outlier detection and correction. In this paper, an effort is made to improve the existing sliding window prediction-based preprocessing method. The recommended reforms are the calculation of appropriate window width and a new outlier correction approach. The proposed method denoted as improved sliding window prediction-based preprocessing is applied to the historical data of PV generation, load power, and the ambient temperature of different time-steps collected from various places in the United States and India. Firstly, the method's efficacy through detailed result analysis demonstrating the proposed preprocessing as a better way than its precursor and k-nearest neighbor approach is presented. Later, the improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy canonizes the proposed method’s concert compared to both the above techniques and the case without preprocessing. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons LtdItem Solar Irradiation Prediction Hybrid Framework Using Regularized Convolutional BiLSTM-Based Autoencoder Approach(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023) Chiranjeevi, M.; Karlamangal, S.; Moger, T.; Jena, D.Solar irradiance prediction is an essential subject in renewable energy generation. Prediction enhances the planning and management of solar installations and provides several economic benefits to energy companies. Solar irradiation, being highly volatile and unpredictable makes the forecasting task complex and difficult. To address the shortcomings of the traditional approaches, this research developed a hybrid resilient architecture for an enhanced solar irradiation forecast by employing a long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder, convolutional neural network (CNN), and the Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory (BiLSTM) model with grid search optimization. The suggested hybrid technique is comprised of two parts: feature encoding and dimensionality reduction using an LSTM autoencoder, followed by a regularized convolutional BiLSTM. The encoder is tasked with extracting the key features in order to deduce the input into a compact latent representation. The decoder network then predicts solar irradiance by analyzing the encoded representation's attributes. The experiments are conducted on three publicly available data sets collected from Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC), National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), and Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation (HI-SEAS) Habitat. The analysis of univariate and multivariate-multi step ahead forecasting performed independently and it is compared with the conventional approaches. Several benchmark forecasting models and three performance metrics are utilized to validate the hybrid approach's prediction performance. The results show that the proposed architecture outperforms benchmark models in accuracy. © 2013 IEEE.