Faculty Publications
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Publications by NITK Faculty
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Item A comparative study on RBF and NARX based methods for forecasting of groundwater level(2011) Dandagala, D.; Deka, P.C.Evaluation and forecasting of groundwater levels through time series model (s) helps for the sustainable development of groundwater resources. The focus of the present study is on the application of Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Non Linear auto-regressive with exogenous variable (NARX) data driven models to forecast groundwater level for multiple input scenario's and also multiple lead time. Weekly time series groundwater level data has been used as input and the models are developed to forecast one, two, three, four, five and sixth week ahead. Root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (Cc) are used for evaluating the accuracy of the models. Based on the comparison of results, it was found that the RBF models are superior to the NARX models in forecasting groundwater level considering RMSE and Cc. The obtained result indicates that the RBF has high performance and consistent upto fourth week lead time and decaying performance for NARX models. Hence, RBF and NARX have the potential in forecasting groundwater level efficiently for multi step lead time. © 2011 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved.Item Hybrid wavelet neural network model for improving forecasting accuracy of time series significant wave height(2011) Prahlada, R.; Deka, P.C.Forecasting of a time series ocean wave data for various lead times has been attempted using hybrid wavelet-Artificial neural networks (WLNN) approach in this study. To improve the model performance a wavelet transformation is attached prior to a predictor (ANN) and then analysis has been carried out. Here the wavelet transformation is used to decompose the original significant wave height (Hs) data into its sub signals in the form of approximation coefficients and detail coefficients. Further, these coefficients were fed to ANN as inputs and targets and the results obtained from the hybrid model are then reconstructed to obtain the predicted significant wave heights. The predicted results from the proposed model were compared with the single ANN results. From the results, it is concluded that the proposed model is working efficiently for predicting time series data, and also the error observed at the higher lead time was very less as compared to the single ANN. The effect of decomposition level is also analysed in thisstudy and their influence was observed significantly in the higher lead time forecasting. © 2011 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY.Item Discrete wavelet neural network approach in significant wave height forecasting for multistep lead time(2012) Deka, P.C.; Prahlada, R.Recently Artificial Neural network (ANN) was extensively used as non-linear inter-extrapolator for ocean wave forecasting as well as other application in ocean engineering. In this current study, the Wavelet transform was hybridised with ANN naming Wavelet Neural Network (WLNN) for significant wave height forecasting near Mangalore, west coast of India, upto 48 h lead time. The main time series of significant wave height data were decomposed to multiresolution time series using discrete wavelet transformations. Then, the multiresolution time series data were used as input of the ANN to forecast the significant wave height at different multistep lead time. It was shown how the proposed model, WLNN, that makes use of multiresolution time series as input, allows for more accurate and consistent predictions with respect to classical ANN models. The proposed wavelet model (WLNN) results revealed that it was better forecasted and consistent than single ANN model because of using multiresolution time series data as inputs. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Item Discrete wavelet-Ann approach in time series flow forecasting-a case study of Brahmaputra river(2012) Deka, P.C.; Haque, L.; Banhatti, A.G.This paper deals with the prediction of hydrologic behavior of the runoff for the one of the largest discharge carrier International River, Brahmaputra, located in Assam (India) at the Pandu station, by using daily time unit. The flow regime dominated by high data non-stationary and seasonal irregularity due to Himalayan climate fallout. The influence of data preprocessing through wavelet transforms has been investigated. For this, the main time series of flow data were decomposed to multi resolution time series using discrete wavelet transformations. Then these decomposed data were used as input to Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for multiple lead time flow forecasting. Various types of wavelets were used to evaluate the optimal performance of models developed. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been tested for multiple lead time upto 4 days using different decomposition levels. The performance of the proposed hybrid model has been evaluated based on the performance indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and mean relative error (MRE).The results shows the better forecasting accuracy by the proposed combined hybrid model over the single ANN model in hydrological time series forecasting. © 2012 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY.Item An extreme learning machine approach for modeling evapotranspiration using extrinsic inputs(Elsevier B.V., 2016) Patil, A.P.; Deka, P.C.Precise estimation of evapotranspiration is crucial for accurate crop-water estimation. Recently machine learning (ML) techniques like artificial neural network (ANN) are being widely used for modeling the process of evapotranspiration. However, ANN faces issues like trapping in local minima, slow learning and tuning of meta-parameters. In this study an improved extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm was used to estimate weekly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo). The study was carried out for Jodhpur and Pali meteorological weather stations located in the Thar Desert, India. The study evaluated the performance of three different input combinations. The first input combination used locally available maximum and minimum air temperature data while the second and third combination used ETo values from another station (extrinsic inputs) along with the locally available temperature data as inputs. The performance of ELM models was compared with the empirical Hargreaves equation, ANN and least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) models. Root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and threshold statistics (TS) were used for comparing the performance of the models. The performance of ELM model was found to be better than the Hargreaves and ANN model. The LS-SVM and ELM displayed similar performance. ELM3 models, with 36 and 33 neurons in hidden layer were found to be the best models (RMSE of 0.43 for Jodhpur and 0.33 for Pali station) for estimating weekly ETo at Jodhpur and Pali stations respectively. The results showed that ELM is a simple yet efficient algorithm which exhibited good performance; hence, can be recommended for estimating weekly ETo. Furthermore, it was also found that use of ETo values from another station can help in improving the efficiency of ML models in limited data scenario. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.Item Performance evaluation of hybrid Wavelet-ANN and Wavelet-ANFIS models for estimating evapotranspiration in arid regions of India(Springer London, 2017) Patil, A.P.; Deka, P.C.This paper evaluates the ability of wavelet transform in improving the accuracy of artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface systems (ANFIS) models. In this study, the performance of hybrid Wavelet-ANN and Wavelet-ANFIS models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in arid regions was evaluated. Prior to the development of models, gamma test was used to identify the best input combinations that could be used under limited data scenario. Performance of the proposed hybrid models was compared to ANN, ANFIS, and conventionally used Hargreaves equation. The results revealed that use of wavelet transform as data preprocessing technique enhanced the efficiency of ANN and ANFIS models. Wavelet-ANN and Wavelet-ANFIS performed reasonably better than other models. Better handling of wavelet-decomposed input variables enabled Wavelet-ANN models to perform slightly better than the Wavelet-ANFIS models. W-ANN2 (RMSE = 0.632 mm/day and R = 0.96) was found to be the best model for estimating daily evapotranspiration in arid regions. The proposed W-ANN2 model used second-level db3 wavelet-decomposed subseries of temperature and previous day evapotranspiration values as inputs. The study concludes that hybrid Wavelet-ANN and Wavelet-ANFIS models can be effectively used for modeling evapotranspiration. © 2015, The Natural Computing Applications Forum.Item Estimation of saturated hydraulic conductivity using fuzzy neural network in a semi-arid basin scale for murum soils of India(Taylor and Francis Ltd. michael.wagreich@univie.ac.at, 2018) More, S.B.; Deka, P.C.Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks is an important input parameter in modeling flow process in soil. Measurement of Ks in field is time consuming and costly. Also, due to inherent temporal and spatial variability of this parameter, large number of samples are required to characterize the areas of site. In this study, a hybrid approach consists of Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN), has been proposed to estimate Ks from limited number of field measurements using Guelph permeameter. The various soil properties such as bulk density, porosity, specific gravity, sand, clay, silt and organic matter were used as input variables and Ks was kept as output. In this study, 175 field measurements and soil samples were collected in a grid of 40 m × 200 m with uniform spacing along the slope of barren land in the site of Punanaka (Solapur city), India. To quantify the prediction accuracy, this FNN approach is compared with regression, Fuzzy Mamdani approach and artificial neural network with BP algorithm. The various statistical performance indices like root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2), and Mean relative error were used for evaluation of model performance. It was found that the hybrid FNN approach in comparison with others could more accurately predict saturated hydraulic conductivity. © 2017 Indian Society for Hydraulics.Item Hybrid wavelet packet machine learning approaches for drought modeling(Springer, 2020) Das, P.; Naganna, S.R.; Deka, P.C.; Pushparaj, J.Among all the natural disasters, drought has the most catastrophic encroachment on the surrounding and environment. Gulbarga, one of the semi-arid districts of Karnataka state, India receives about 700 mm of average annual rainfall and is drought inclined. In this study, the forecasting of drought for the district has been carried out for a lead time of 1 month and 6 months. The multi-temporal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter due to the fact that it is calculated on the basis of one simplest parameter, i.e., rainfall and additionally due to its ease of use. The fine resolution daily gridded precipitation data (0.25º × 0.25º) procured from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) of 21 grid locations within the study area have been used for the analysis. Forecasting of drought plays a significant role in drought preparedness and mitigation plans. With the advent of machine learning (ML) techniques over the past few decades, forecasting of any hydrologic event has become easier and more accurate. However, the use of these techniques for drought forecasting is still obscure. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques have been employed to examine their accuracy in drought forecasting over shorter and longer lead times. Furthermore, two hybrid approaches have been formulated by coupling a data transformation method with each of the aforementioned ML approaches. At the outset, pre-processing of input data (i.e., SPI) has been carried out using Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) and then used as inputs to ANN and SVR models to induce hybrid WP-ANN and WP-SVR models. The performance of the hybrid models has been evaluated based on the statistical indices such as R2 (co-efficient of determination), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and MAE (Mean Absolute Error). The results showed that the hybrid techniques have better forecast performance than the standalone machine learning approaches. Hybrid WP-ANN model performed relatively better than WP-SVR model for most of the grid locations. Also, the forecasting results deteriorated as the lead time increased from 1 to 6 months. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.