Faculty Publications
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Item A comparative study on RBF and NARX based methods for forecasting of groundwater level(2011) Dandagala, D.; Deka, P.C.Evaluation and forecasting of groundwater levels through time series model (s) helps for the sustainable development of groundwater resources. The focus of the present study is on the application of Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Non Linear auto-regressive with exogenous variable (NARX) data driven models to forecast groundwater level for multiple input scenario's and also multiple lead time. Weekly time series groundwater level data has been used as input and the models are developed to forecast one, two, three, four, five and sixth week ahead. Root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (Cc) are used for evaluating the accuracy of the models. Based on the comparison of results, it was found that the RBF models are superior to the NARX models in forecasting groundwater level considering RMSE and Cc. The obtained result indicates that the RBF has high performance and consistent upto fourth week lead time and decaying performance for NARX models. Hence, RBF and NARX have the potential in forecasting groundwater level efficiently for multi step lead time. © 2011 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved.Item Discrete wavelet-Ann approach in time series flow forecasting-a case study of Brahmaputra river(2012) Deka, P.C.; Haque, L.; Banhatti, A.G.This paper deals with the prediction of hydrologic behavior of the runoff for the one of the largest discharge carrier International River, Brahmaputra, located in Assam (India) at the Pandu station, by using daily time unit. The flow regime dominated by high data non-stationary and seasonal irregularity due to Himalayan climate fallout. The influence of data preprocessing through wavelet transforms has been investigated. For this, the main time series of flow data were decomposed to multi resolution time series using discrete wavelet transformations. Then these decomposed data were used as input to Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for multiple lead time flow forecasting. Various types of wavelets were used to evaluate the optimal performance of models developed. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been tested for multiple lead time upto 4 days using different decomposition levels. The performance of the proposed hybrid model has been evaluated based on the performance indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and mean relative error (MRE).The results shows the better forecasting accuracy by the proposed combined hybrid model over the single ANN model in hydrological time series forecasting. © 2012 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY.Item An extreme learning machine approach for modeling evapotranspiration using extrinsic inputs(Elsevier B.V., 2016) Patil, A.P.; Deka, P.C.Precise estimation of evapotranspiration is crucial for accurate crop-water estimation. Recently machine learning (ML) techniques like artificial neural network (ANN) are being widely used for modeling the process of evapotranspiration. However, ANN faces issues like trapping in local minima, slow learning and tuning of meta-parameters. In this study an improved extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm was used to estimate weekly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo). The study was carried out for Jodhpur and Pali meteorological weather stations located in the Thar Desert, India. The study evaluated the performance of three different input combinations. The first input combination used locally available maximum and minimum air temperature data while the second and third combination used ETo values from another station (extrinsic inputs) along with the locally available temperature data as inputs. The performance of ELM models was compared with the empirical Hargreaves equation, ANN and least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) models. Root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and threshold statistics (TS) were used for comparing the performance of the models. The performance of ELM model was found to be better than the Hargreaves and ANN model. The LS-SVM and ELM displayed similar performance. ELM3 models, with 36 and 33 neurons in hidden layer were found to be the best models (RMSE of 0.43 for Jodhpur and 0.33 for Pali station) for estimating weekly ETo at Jodhpur and Pali stations respectively. The results showed that ELM is a simple yet efficient algorithm which exhibited good performance; hence, can be recommended for estimating weekly ETo. Furthermore, it was also found that use of ETo values from another station can help in improving the efficiency of ML models in limited data scenario. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.Item Wavelet coupled MARS and M5 Model Tree approaches for groundwater level forecasting(Elsevier B.V., 2017) Rezaie-Balf, M.; Naganna, S.R.; Ghaemi, A.; Deka, P.C.In this study, two different machine learning models, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and M5 Model Trees (MT) have been applied to simulate the groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations of three shallow open wells within diverse unconfined aquifers. The Wavelet coupled MARS and MT hybrid models were developed in an attempt to further increase the GWL forecast accuracy. The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) which is particularly effective in dealing with non-stationary time-series data was employed to decompose the input time series into various sub-series components. Historical data of 10 years (August-1996 to July-2006) comprising monthly groundwater level, rainfall, and temperature were used to calibrate and validate the models. The models were calibrated and tested for one, three and six months ahead forecast horizons. The wavelet coupled MARS and MT models were compared with their simple counterpart using standard statistical performance evaluation measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NNSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The wavelet coupled MARS and MT models developed using multi-scale input data performed better compared to their simple counterpart and the forecast accuracy of W-MARS models were superior to that of W-MT models. Specifically, the DWT offered a better discrimination of non-linear and non-stationary trends that were present at various scales in the time series of the input variables thus crafting the W-MARS models to provide more accurate GWL forecasts. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.Item Estimation of saturated hydraulic conductivity using fuzzy neural network in a semi-arid basin scale for murum soils of India(Taylor and Francis Ltd. michael.wagreich@univie.ac.at, 2018) More, S.B.; Deka, P.C.Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks is an important input parameter in modeling flow process in soil. Measurement of Ks in field is time consuming and costly. Also, due to inherent temporal and spatial variability of this parameter, large number of samples are required to characterize the areas of site. In this study, a hybrid approach consists of Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN), has been proposed to estimate Ks from limited number of field measurements using Guelph permeameter. The various soil properties such as bulk density, porosity, specific gravity, sand, clay, silt and organic matter were used as input variables and Ks was kept as output. In this study, 175 field measurements and soil samples were collected in a grid of 40 m × 200 m with uniform spacing along the slope of barren land in the site of Punanaka (Solapur city), India. To quantify the prediction accuracy, this FNN approach is compared with regression, Fuzzy Mamdani approach and artificial neural network with BP algorithm. The various statistical performance indices like root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2), and Mean relative error were used for evaluation of model performance. It was found that the hybrid FNN approach in comparison with others could more accurately predict saturated hydraulic conductivity. © 2017 Indian Society for Hydraulics.Item Estimation of dew point temperature using SVM and ELM for humid and semi-arid regions of India(Taylor and Francis Ltd. michael.wagreich@univie.ac.at, 2018) Deka, P.C.; Patil, A.P.; Yeswanth Kumar, P.; Naganna, S.R.The dew point temperature is the temperature at which the moisture in the air begins to condense into dew or water droplets. The accurate estimation of the dew point temperature is very important as it controls the heat stress on humans, detects fluctuations of evaporation rates, and humidity trends. The dew point temperature is a significant parameter particularly required in various hydrological, climatological and agronomical related researches. This study proposes Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) models for the estimation of daily dew point temperature. The daily measured weather data (Wet bulb temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure and dew point temperature) of humid and semi-arid regions of India were used for model development. The statistical indices, namely Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency were adopted to evaluate the performances of these two models. The merit of the ELM model is evaluated against SVM technique in the estimation of dew point temperature. The proposed ELM models demonstrated much greater capability than the SVM models in the estimation of daily dew point temperature. © 2017 Indian Society for Hydraulics.Item Dew Point temperature estimation: Application of artificial intelligence model integrated with nature-inspired optimization algorithms(MDPI AG indexing@mdpi.com Postfach Basel CH-4005, 2019) Naganna, S.R.; Deka, P.C.; Ghorbani, M.A.; Biazar, S.M.; Al-Ansari, N.; Yaseen, Z.M.Dew point temperature (DPT) is known to fluctuate in space and time regardless of the climatic zone considered. The accurate estimation of the DPT is highly significant for various applications of hydro and agro-climatological researches. The current research investigated the hybridization of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network with nature-inspired optimization algorithms (i.e., gravitational search (GSA) and firefly (FFA)) to model the DPT of two climatically contrasted (humid and semi-arid) regions in India. Daily time scale measured weather information, such as wet bulb temperature (WBT), vapor pressure (VP), relative humidity (RH), and dew point temperature, was used to build the proposed predictive models. The efficiencies of the proposed hybrid MLP networks (MLP-FFA and MLP-GSA) were authenticated against standard MLP tuned by a Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation algorithm, extreme learning machine (ELM), and support vector machine (SVM) models. Statistical evaluation metrics such as Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to validate the model efficiency. The proposed hybrid MLP models exhibited excellent estimation accuracy. The hybridization of MLP with nature-inspired optimization algorithms boosted the estimation accuracy that is clearly owing to the tuning robustness. In general, the applied methodology showed very convincing results for both inspected climate zones. © 2019 by the authors.Item Hybrid wavelet packet machine learning approaches for drought modeling(Springer, 2020) Das, P.; Naganna, S.R.; Deka, P.C.; Pushparaj, J.Among all the natural disasters, drought has the most catastrophic encroachment on the surrounding and environment. Gulbarga, one of the semi-arid districts of Karnataka state, India receives about 700 mm of average annual rainfall and is drought inclined. In this study, the forecasting of drought for the district has been carried out for a lead time of 1 month and 6 months. The multi-temporal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter due to the fact that it is calculated on the basis of one simplest parameter, i.e., rainfall and additionally due to its ease of use. The fine resolution daily gridded precipitation data (0.25º × 0.25º) procured from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) of 21 grid locations within the study area have been used for the analysis. Forecasting of drought plays a significant role in drought preparedness and mitigation plans. With the advent of machine learning (ML) techniques over the past few decades, forecasting of any hydrologic event has become easier and more accurate. However, the use of these techniques for drought forecasting is still obscure. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques have been employed to examine their accuracy in drought forecasting over shorter and longer lead times. Furthermore, two hybrid approaches have been formulated by coupling a data transformation method with each of the aforementioned ML approaches. At the outset, pre-processing of input data (i.e., SPI) has been carried out using Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) and then used as inputs to ANN and SVR models to induce hybrid WP-ANN and WP-SVR models. The performance of the hybrid models has been evaluated based on the statistical indices such as R2 (co-efficient of determination), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and MAE (Mean Absolute Error). The results showed that the hybrid techniques have better forecast performance than the standalone machine learning approaches. Hybrid WP-ANN model performed relatively better than WP-SVR model for most of the grid locations. Also, the forecasting results deteriorated as the lead time increased from 1 to 6 months. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.Item Performance enhancement of SVM model using discrete wavelet transform for daily streamflow forecasting(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021) Kambalimath S, S.; Deka, P.C.Streamflow modeling becomes a vital task in any hydrological study for an improved planning and management of water resources. Soft computing and machine learning techniques are becoming popular day by day for their predictive capability when limited input data are available. In the present study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique is applied to forecast 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day ahead streamflow using daily streamflow time-series of Khanapur, Cholachguda, and Navalgund gauging stations in Malaprabha sub-basin located in the Karnataka state of India. Furthermore, Discrete Wavelet Transform is used as a data pre-processing method to evaluate the performance enhancement of SVM model, for which four different mother wavelet functions are used and tested separately, namely, Haar, Daubechies, Coiflets, and Symlets. Models are evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2), root-mean-square error, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency. The study indicates that the performance of SVM model improves considerably when wavelet method is coupled. It is found that the R2 values for Khanapur station using SVM are 0.91, 0.66, and 0.46 for 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day lead-time forecasts, respectively. However, when wavelet method is coupled with SVM model, the R2 is improved to 0.99, 0.73, and 0.68 for 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day lead-time forecasts, respectively. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.Item Application of Mamdani model-based fuzzy inference system in water consumption estimation using time series(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022) Surendra, H.J.; Deka, P.C.; Rajakumara, H.N.Artificial intelligence methods resemble human thinking structure that are used in hydrological modeling. In this work, water consumption estimation modeling is done using Mamdani fuzzy inference system. Different combinations of the models were developed by changing structures scenario such as: membership function, rules criteria, fuzzy set and defuzzification method. Mapping of input and output function are done using climatic variables and water consumption data. Rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity were used as input factors and water consumption as output function. The reasoning mechanism of the fuzzy inference system calculates the recommended value of water consumption. Obtained value is compared with the actual recommended values to determine the usefulness of the system. The performances of the models were evaluated using performance indices such as correlation coefficient, mean square error and mean relative error. Results highlight that Mamdani fuzzy inference system is effective in actual application. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.