Browsing by Author "Managi, S."

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    Forecasting the CO2 emissions at the global level: A multilayer artificial neural network modelling
    (MDPI, 2021) Jena, P.R.; Managi, S.; Majhi, B.
    Better accuracy in short?term forecasting is required for intermediate planning for the national target to reduce CO2 emissions. High stake climate change conventions need accurate predictions of the future emission growth path of the participating countries to make informed decisions. The current study forecasts the CO2 emissions of the 17 key emitting countries. Unlike previous studies where linear statistical modeling is used to forecast the emissions, we develop a multilayer artificial neural network model to forecast the emissions. This model is a dynamic nonlinear model that helps to obtain optimal weights for the predictors with a high level of prediction accuracy. The model uses the gross domestic product (GDP), urban population ratio, and trade openness, as predictors for CO2 emissions. We observe an average of 96% prediction accuracy among the 17 countries which is much higher than the accuracy of the previous models. Using the optimal weights and available input data the forecasting of CO2 emissions is undertaken. The results show that high emitting countries, such as China, India, Iran, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia are expected to increase their emissions in the near future. Currently, low emitting countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and South Korea will also tread on a high emission growth path. On the other hand, the USA, Japan, UK, France, Italy, Australia, and Canada will continuously reduce their emissions. These findings will help the countries to engage in climate mitigation and adaptation negotiations. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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    Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster
    (Elsevier B.V., 2021) Jena, P.R.; Majhi, R.; Kalli, R.; Managi, S.; Majhi, B.
    The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused global health impacts, and governments have restricted movements to a certain extent. Such restrictions have led to disruptions in economic activities. In this paper, the GDP figures for the April–June quarter of 2020 for eight countries, namely, the United States, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, India, and Japan, are forecasted. Considering that artificial neural network models have higher forecasting accuracy than statistical methods, a multilayer artificial neural network model is developed in this paper. This model splits the dataset into two parts: the first with 80% of the observations and the second with 20%. The model then uses the first part to optimize the forecasting accuracy and then applies the optimized parameters to the second part of the dataset to assess the model performance. A forecasting error of less than 2% is achieved by the model during the testing procedure. The forecasted GDP figures show that the April–June quarter of the current year experienced sharp declines in GDP for all countries. Moreover, the annualized GDP growth is expected to reach double-digit negative growth rates. Such alarming prospects require urgent rescue actions by governments. © 2020 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland
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    Natural Capital and Climate Smart Agriculture: Measuring Progress towards Sustainability and Policy Making in India
    (Taylor and Francis, 2024) Jena, P.R.; Managi, S.; Majhi, R.
    India is the fastest growing and the world's third-largest economy in terms of GDP in PPP terms. Sustainable development of India will ensure the welfare of the inhabitants of this most populated country. This book assesses trends of natural capital and areas of improvement through climate resilient agricultural adaptation in India. The book looks at how the agricultural sector can become more climate resilient to ensure food security and human capital development. It also suggests a policy framework towards climate-resilient agricultural development. It outlines determinants of climate-smart agricultural practices and their impact on agricultural yield, biodiversity, and food security, and as well as outreach activities for wider collaboration from around the world. This book will interest those who are researching accounting natural capital impacts of climate-resilient agriculture and 2030 SDGs. © 2025 Pradyot Ranjan Jena, Shunsuke Managi, and Ritanjali Majhi. All rights reserved.
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    Subsidized LPG Scheme and the Shift to Cleaner Household Energy Use: Evidence from a Tribal Community of Eastern India
    (MDPI, 2022) Kalli, R.; Jena, P.R.; Managi, S.
    Traditional fuels have both environmental and health impacts. The transition from traditional to clean cooking fuel requires significant public policy actions. The Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) is one of the primary policies launched in India to eradicate energy poverty among households. Past studies have focused on the drivers that motivate rural households to adopt clean energy and identified the bottlenecks for adoption of clean energy in developing countries. PMUY’s success in terms of scale and pace is critical in the national drive to provide access to clean energy fuel to each citizen. The present study focuses on two objectives. First, we investigate the intensity of adoption and refill of LPG under the PMUY scheme. Second, we use household and other demographic characteristics to examine the factors that influence households’ decision on using LPG as a cooking fuel. Empirical results show that rapid growth has been witnessed in the provision of subsidized LPG connections. However, the annual average refill status stands at two LPG cylinders per beneficiary household indicating that the majority of the beneficiaries have failed to refill their LPG cylinders. This imbalance between rapid enrollment of LPG and limited refill among beneficiary households indicate the continued usage of traditional sources of energy for cooking. From the primary survey conducted in the rural tribal communities of Odisha, we observe that household income and education played a significant role in adoption of LPG and continued usage of LPG gas. Additionally, the logit and ordered probit models identify that membership in self-help groups, accessibility and awareness of LPG are the major adoption drivers. In conclusion, policy makers need to address the challenge of refill status among PMUY consumers. Further, educating households on health benefits through SHG and creating accessibility at village level can actively increase the usage of LPG. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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    Towards parity: Examining the closing gender gap on electricity access in India using data from 1998 to 2021
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024) Timilsina, R.R.; Jena, P.R.; Rahut, D.B.; Managi, S.
    Access to electricity is fundamental for human development, health, and well-being, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Governments of several low-and middle-income countries have implemented policies and interventions to increase access to electricity over the decades. Heterogeneity in access to electricity across gender is a major aspect of this development indicator. However, little is known about the distribution of and access to electricity between male and female-headed households in countries such as India. This study aims to investigate gender parity in access to electricity using data from four waves of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) from 1998 to 2021. The analysis employs a logit regression model and includes counterfactual analysis to comprehensively understand the determinants of electricity access across genders. The results indicate that electricity consumption is positively associated with female-headed households, education, wealth, and urban location. The study shows that the gap in access to electricity between genders is narrowing in favor of female-headed households over the four waves of national-level data spanning two decades. The difference between male and female-headed households declined from 4.73 % in 1998–2000 to 1.6 % in 2019–2021, reflecting gender parity in access to electricity in the country. Access to electricity has increased across all households, but uninterrupted supply and transition to green energy shall be the significant challenges ahead. Therefore, the government must improve access to electricity, particularly for female-headed households, and also make it affordable for households to install other renewable energy systems to increase overall electricity generation. © 2024 International Energy Initiative